We were discussing the fact that older single males increasingly prowl the streets of New York City and don’t seem to get married. One contributing factor is believed to be the growing availability of takeout; people can easily fend for themselves in the urban food jungle. One possible solution I came up with: Get rid of the takeout places. That oughta get them off the streets.

In the global thoughts department this month:

Turkey and the EEC Referendum: Turkey might be better off because Europe has to shed some of its ideas about what EEC Unification means. The union was getting too big for the uniformity that the Brussels-bureaucrats envisioned and the future will involve a confederation that will not be as cohesive, if it is to be practical. The US is only too happy for the EEC to become a huge UN-like debating society that talks a lot and does nothing because its members cannot agree to anything. It wasn’t practical for such a tight ship to take in Turkey, but a less cohesive structure with all that the Eastern European countries demand, would be better able to absorb Turkish membership. Meanwhile, the Turks have come to realize that the Europeans are not really reliable partners for them, and have gone back to realizing that such partners as the US and even Israel are where it’s at for them, at least for the next decade. France and Germany must really get with reforms; I expect a change in government over the next year in both countries and I can see why the US is freezing out Germany’s bid for Security Council membership; as long as Chirac and Schroeder are running their shows, the US has no reason to help them along.

Iraq – regardless of how this campaign is playing out, the American military is stretched beyond where it should be and the effects of this are as predicted here earlier last year. The military is having trouble meeting recruitment quotas and says it meets quotas by changing them to fit the reality. We are losing good candidates for the future because of the short-term stunts pulled by Bush to force people in the field to stay in the arena past their due dates. In order to get new recruits, standards are being lowered. The situation is not good looking forward and the cost of this war are significant with no real gain in sight. It is understood that pulling out would cause other countries around the region to lose respect for the US, stop their reforms and divert jihadis away from the magnet of Iraq to wage even more battles elsewhere. It is a bit of a trap. The Americans simply don’t have enough fire power to run Iraq; the only way forward that I can see is to pick certain areas of Iraq that we want to control and dig in there and pull out of other areas of the country.

Iran Election – The hard-liners maneuvered to get their guy in, and this is good. Rafsanjani was no good at all and very unpopular in the country because the Iranians know how corrupt he is. This kind of guy as president will only make the country’s move toward revolution and/or democracy that much closer. The stock market dived after he got elected; his answer was that stock markets involve prohibited gambling.
       
Guantanimo – Spoke with an Arab fellow who translates at Guantanimo and worked for defense attorneys representing inmates rather recently. Says the only people being tortured there are the ones guarding the prisoners. Says they are being treated very well and that the media is distorting reality. Says the prisoners are not being charged with crimes themselves, but that they are giving a lot of information that is leading to other arrests and preventing acts of terror. Says they don’t want to talk and are exaggerating about the conditions of their confinement (and that if they would talk they would get out faster because the government does release people it feels have told them everything). He says the Government is very careful to document everything having to do with their interrogations and imprisonment and it is clear from this documentation that they catch the prisoners lying. Nevertheless, there is a lot of naivete going on viz. attorneys and government employees, he says. I am aware that this assessment goes against the grain of what else we’ve been hearing, but this is a very good source and he has seen a lot over there. I cannot discount it, and would recommend based on this testimony that people give a bit more benefit of the doubt to the Government’s point of view on this matter since we really know very little about this.

Israel-Palestinian – To get a good idea of why Jews are cynical about Palestinian intentions, click on this link and see the 4 minute clip of the May 15th sermon from the Gaza mosque shown on the official Palestinian TV station which plenty of Jews have by now watched from their internet screens. 

http://switch5.castup.net/frames/20041020_MemriTV_Popup/video_480x360.asp?ClipMediaID=60227&ak=null

It is basically the worst type of antisemitic crap one expects to find in the public domain and, by the way, it is pretty darn anti-American while we’re at it. Evidently, the reaction from this video was so awful that the chairman of the Palestinian authority has directed his TV station to stop this kind of thing and to overhaul its broadcasting, which has actually happened....The big question for me is whether or not Abbas is losing control (if he ever had it) and whether this ceasefire will hold up, even through the Israeli disengagement. No doubt that Sharon is going to do the disengagement even if he has to knock over half of Gaza to avoid doing it under fire, and no doubt that even if the Palestinians want it, there are enough troublemakers to defy common sense and to wreak havoc, because history has shown that some people never lose an opportunity to lose an opportunity. On the other hand, from what I’ve gathered, there are relations between the Israelis and Palestinians going on at several levels. It may not be rosy at the top between Sharon and Abbas, but cooperation at lower levels is significant and in reality the Israelis are working very closely with Palestinians to plan every aspect of this withdrawal. I think that the tensions at the top may to some extent be orchestrated so that Abbas doesn’t come across as being too much in bed with the Israelis. The truth I don’t know, but the evidence indicates this. 

I have seen pretty good evidence that some of the more headline-grabbing incidents of terrorism are more complicated than they appear. The Israeli commander admitted to Haaretz newspaper that they had undercover Arabs throwing stones two months ago at a demonstration, and the newspaper’s reporter looked into the story about the Arab girl who was on her way to blow up a hospital and raised questions about how the story did not add up and how nobody else was asking some pretty good questions about it. What I can safely say is that a bit of skepticism is in order about some of the stories coming out of the Government Press Office and that it is not inconceivable that the Israelis are themselves staging some of the “terrorism alert items” in order to achieve certain goals, such as to crack down or not perform something they were supposed to do and provide a cover for this. This is not rocket science – every government does a bit of this when it suits their national interest and it is not necessarily ordered at the highest levels. What I have to do as a news consumer is to realize that some of this is at play and be a bit skeptical of the day to day news. What matters right now is that I am aware that the Israeli authorities are providing lots of information to Palestinians such as maps of Gaza communities – the kinds of things they earlier said they wouldn’t provide and that you wouldn’t provide if things were as tense as they say they are.

Housing Bubble – The Economist cover features a falling brick labeled Housing Prices and the headline is “After the Fall.” They say the bubble might not burst until 2006 and then it might fall over a span of several years. I can only say that in the late 90's people reading the Economist say that the stocks were overvalued huffed and said that they didn’t see the stock markets going south after 6 months of reading the Economist. But fell they did. I’ve never made money betting against the Economist; even with the Euro rising as it is, I’m not selling out so fast because I think it is a short-term manipulation of the market. The Euro-zone is not a land of economic opportunity but the Euro is not going to end in tatters and the US wants a cheap dollar. So I will pocket the cheaper summer season in Europe and wait for the dollar to resume its fall. Meanwhile, I would advise people not to buy real estate right now.

Business Class Reconsidered – I’ve flown this several times during the past few years and I have come to feel that even though the commentators keep saying how the airlines are improving their products, I disagree. I think business class is losing its value as a premium and this may be one reason why fewer people are willing to pay for it (and why more buy-in-advance nonrefundable fares are becoming available). The food isn’t that good and you are quite likely not even to get the items you choose; the airport check-in is not always faster; there is no extra help at all in an airport making connections or the kind of “special handling” you used to get; the airport personnel these days spend more time telling you what they CANNOT do for you than what they can, even in business class; the baggage doesn’t seem to come out faster; the airport lounges offer you nothing these days; the entertainment options are no more than coach and the only thing you are really getting is extra space and even that is not as much as you used to get. The premium of 6-8x the normal seat is just not worth it although there is no doubt that for me my jet lag flying eastward has gone down as I have flown this way. You are probably just as well off to buy the 1 or 2 seats next to you and take over a row because you’ll still spend less than 50% of the business class fare. If the guy in front of you is reclining, at least you have some other seats not in your face or the room to otherwise stretch out and you are perfectly better off bringing your own food on board because you just can’t expect the airlines to feed you even on a 5 hour flight across the US and especially on a shorter flight that you just happened to connect to (and are really hungry on). Let me know what you think about this. I find myself feeling all too often – I can’t believe that this is the way X airline treats its most profitable passengers. I know that I as a business-owner would never treat my best customers this way. But aside from some of the really good airlines such as Emirates and Singapore, that’s what you get these days. Even Lufthansa is not so good anymore with the corporate beancounters increasingly ruling the roost. Please, Swiss people, undo this terrible deed of having Lufthansa take over your flagship airline.

Travel Notes – Weekend at Blantyre Estate, Lenox, Massachusetts.

Almost a 3 hour ride to Blantyre in Lenox, Massachusetts. Visit to Norman Rockwell Museum, a worthwhile thing to do. A gallery talk is interesting and lasts half an hour. Café there with sandwiches and various things. Blantyre is a Relais Chateaux property with 25 rooms and a spa. Rooms are all very cozy and plush. We got the Ice House, a separate cottage in the woods with lovely decor, 4 post bed, enclosed porch, and very large bathroom. Worth the extra money to do it in comparison to the rest of the property. New spa; treatments were good but a bit pricey as things go. Food and beverage were excellent; they give you canopes and petite fours in the music room with a pianist or violinist and you order dinner from there; seating in the restaurant is for the 3 courses and they serve them straight away after they seat you. Breakfast is very good and a continental breakfast is included. Service is friendly; not as nose-in-the-air as Wheatleigh and the rooms were better here with more common areas to sit in. White tuxedo’d fellow with champagne in the driveway as we came to the house; they replaced it with cookies and fresh juices. They bring a Times to your door in the morning. Sunday morning a 45 minute drive to the Clark Institute and an excellent jam-packed collection of great art in an hour; see the pretty lilly pond on the side of the white marble building. They are starting a 10-15 year building project to make pretty reflecting pools and update the building. The problem with the Berkshires region of Massachusetts is that you have to drive 3-4 hours to get there and the weather isn’t any cooler than New York City. It costs over $300 to rent the car for the 2-3 day weekend. The cost of the hotel is high. For all this, you’re better off just hopping a $200 flight to Canada in an hour where, for the cost of one night at the Blantyre room only, you could get 2 nights room, full board and spa treatments in a comparable Relais Chateaux property in Canada, such as Langdon Hall an hour outside of Toronto. We were supposed to go there for the Fourth of July but had to postpone to later this month. We saw how thunderstorms shut down flights to Canada for several days this week and tried to standby for an earlier flight this past Friday. We got on and then were taken off after the airline claimed a computer error. The later flight we were afraid to take because of the sabbath and because of a line of thunderstorms threatening the area – wouldn’t you know it turned out to be the first flight in 3 days to arrive within an hour of schedule. Forget about trying to use the weather channel to plan your travel, although to be fair there were 70 mile an hour winds and 5 feet of water just an hour away from here. Instead, we were home and spent our Sunday maternity shopping (ever notice that none of these stores are at street level and there are only a few of them in all of Manhattan, perhaps because they know you have no choice but to shop there) but at least had wonderful chocolate cake and ice cream at the Peninsula Hotel in New York afterward. Toronto and nearby Ontario details to follow next month.

Click here for photos of Blantyre.