I left town again for a week on 4 October following a couple of interesting episodes. Walked into Macy’s in Manhattan; it was a ghost town at 5 that afternoon when it should’ve been full of people. I felt so un-American returning a shaver I didn’t like. The 60 year old Black salesman at the shaver counter was hopping mad – he said “We need racial profiling NOW!” I said “You know your history – why would you want to go back to that?” He said, “Hey, the white man don’t like the black man, that’s just racism. These Islamists – they want to kill us all.”

Spoke with a colleague in Saudi Arabia. Tells me Bin Laden is a pretty popular dude over there these days. Saudis feel the USA never liked them and they’re feeling pretty defensive over the anti-Arab sentiment going on here. Some of them are letting Americans and Brits know they would be very happy if they left the country. Some in the business community are putting deals and investments on hold; not terribly interested in investing in America these days. They feel the Americans didn’t complain when Arab innocents died until now – all of a sudden the Arabs are expected to drop everything and cry for the Americans.

Before I left, I spent Yom Kippur in the Hassidic neighborhood of Borough Park in Brooklyn. There are US flags all over the place – even hanging from the Yeshivas. For the first time since the community arrived in the US 50 years ago, they are no longer pretending they are not in America. My friend in Hialeah, Florida says the Cuban flags are all gone from the Cuban neighborhoods and all you see are American flags. Blood binds.

We are trying to get back to normal – I went to Macy’s today and bought a pair of sweatpants just to be a good citizen and buy something. I am afraid though that the second great attack will be like a relapse of a bad sickness. I haven’t gone downtown; I really don’t want to see it. I am also consciously watching as little TV as possible. When I see the downtown skyline, in a weird way I don’t miss what I don’t see. Cops are everywhere and I think there are many more sirens of ambulances and police cars passing by all day and night. Security is uneven and cosmetic, even at the airports. We are still feeling our way on a learning curve. Everyone is being inconvenienced to no real effect. I wonder if gyms are offering more hand-to-hand combat classes? 

I’m glad to see Russia and China cooperating and the newfound cooperation represents a real change in the world; as I expected, Saudi Arabia is not cooperating fully and they are getting heat from the US government and the establishment media. For instance, they won’t give passenger manifests to US Customs Authority as to arriving passengers on Saudi Arabian Airlines like most other airlines do for pre-screening purposes. This is an outrage and I think we ought to bar SAA from our airports until they do cooperate. They should be reading the tea leaves because their noncooperation is serious stuff, the likes of which I’ve never seen. The Washington Post last week wrote in a newspaper editorial that the cause of terrorism is not Israel or US policy on Iraq but rather the Arab regimes that pretend to be against terrorism but in truth harbor it. Rather than pressure Sharon, these Arab countries had better change their internal policies and offer their people freedom or else the US might learn to live without Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the rest, said the Post. Thomas Friedman in the New York Times was extremely harsh with regard to the Saudi Arabian government in a recent column and used very tough words. 

US-Saudi relations will not survive daily articles in the New York Times about how Saudi Arabia withholds information from US investigating authorities and takes our oil money and funds mosques and schools all over the world that preach Wahabiism and absolute hatred of America, the West, Christianity and Judaism. One day it will wake up and find out that America has made a fundamental decision to step up the production and purchase of Canadian and Russian oil (which it is in fact doing) and simply stop buying petroleum from Saudi Arabia.  Dry up their money, and they can’t run around proselytizing and writing checks out to the bin Ladens of the world. It is only a matter of time before someone starts a consumer boycott movement which no government or prostituted business interest will be able to prevent. Ultimately, the taxes and costs we will pay for terrorism are much more than the extra buck per gallon people with cars will pay if we learn to live without Saudi oil.

Meanwhile, we found out that the White House erred in its story about the threat phoned into the Secret Service on the day of the hijacking (which was discussed in the last posting). They now say it didn’t happen. Also turns out there is proof that Mr. Atta met an Iraqi agent in Prague; clearly our government doesn't want to deal with Iraq right now although there is a lobby pressing to hit at Iraq. The country's foreign minister, recently on the BBC, came off so hostile that it will be a no-brainer to get Americans and Brits behind such a war.

As to the anthrax scares. Can you say “Testing 1,2,3...” – they are teasing us right now. This is only the beginning. I said earlier this month that I expected 1:3 odds of unconventional attacks in New York within 3-6 months; my Israeli counterpart who is a specialist in bioterror said I was being too conservative. Intelligence agencies around the world are intercepting communications that indicate a second and third wave of attacks involving nonconventional weaponry are in the works although perhaps delayed by the reaction so far. However, I am a bit relieved that the anthrax attacks so far appear to be connected, limited and perhaps not even tied to bin Laden; bin Laden probably would not go for these type of limited attacks. I really do not want this to be coming from a state such as Iraq or an Islamic terrorist network. I want to believe that the entities that play this game respect certain limits and believe that the World Trade Center attacks exceeded them. However, it is also clear that this is not a small-time crackpot at work; the samples are sophisticated enough that the source is either a financier with his own operation, a state or something purchased or stolen from a source such as a Russian laboratory. I am afraid we will at some point find out that bin Laden is a front for Saddam Hussein, but if it is so, we will not say so for awhile because first things first and right now targeting bin Laden and the Taliban is the objective.

I have more respect for the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine than whoever is blowing up the World Trade Center or playing with anthrax. In the realm of warfare as it goes, the PFLP chose a rational target for their revenge, handled their mission with precision and without collateral damage, took responsibility soon afterward and explained why they did it. None of which I can say for Bin Laden’s gang or whoever else is driving the world nuts these days.

I am monitoring developments but with a large dose of skepticism considering that no one knows anything of what is really going on in Afghanistan. Every day the US says it has decimated the Taliban defenses but every day we keep bombing. What are we bombing, a rapidly mutating species of donkeys? Today they are talking about all these Northern Alliance forces converging on a village in the north. And we are supposedly helping. The BBC says there are at least 8 American advisors there. This is the extent of the American involvement in this highlight story? The whole thing seems ridiculous if you believe what they are dishing out in the press. I am OK with Bush, but I and everyone around me cracks up every time we see him on TV talking and saying phrases like “the forces of evil.” It just looks like a Grade-B movie based on some 1950's comic book but the villains in Superman were not wearing turbans riding horses. I think the short story on the war so far is that (1) the US government doesn't know the answers to the big questions on our minds and is on a learning curve as to the current threats against us (as are we all); (2) they are still afraid to get their hands dirty on the ground in Afghanistan beause they are trying to plan the "what after" before they let the Taliban fall with no good apparent options at hand -- problem is we are wasting time and may get overtaken by events. This is a crummy war because we have no real allies except the UK and we ourselves are seen as unreliable opportunists in the region. 

There are two long term choices, as I see them. We can say we care about the Arab/Islamic Street to the extent that we care about the opinions of a billion people. In that event, we need to become less hypocritical but we risk the stability of regimes we detest but prefer to the unstable masses. Or, we say that these angry people will always be angry and the only thing we can do is act tough and keep our foot on their heads. In that event, we need to win this war and it will keep the world quiet for a few years until someone breaks out of the box again. I think there is truth to both scenarios with no good choice -- better a dead enemy than a poor humiliated one who wants his revenge. Meaning that as for the 2nd choice, unless you plan to expel every Moslem and nuke the rest, I don't see how it will work. Besides, it assumes that the only troublemakers are Moslems.

Problem in the world today is that the only people running around praising suicide bombers are Islamists and everyone else is terrified by a culture that appears not only tolerates this but glorifies it. Yes, they keep telling us they are against suicides and killing innocents. But let's not underestimate their intelligence or accuse them of thinking their lives are cheap. Today's NY Times Magazine cover story "The Mind of a Suicide Bomber" features reporting from a 40-year veteran of the Times who spoke to Islamists in Gaza, Cairo and Hamburg to find out how they rationalize martyrdom. These people and many of their "street" supporters believe that (1) The martyr doesn't actually die but somehow goes to heaven without actually dying; (2) All their family and friends also enter paradise with total absolution of sin; (3) Israelis (and Americans, depending on whom you ask) are not innocents; (4) Their lives are not cheap. In fact, they are achieving martyrdom by giving their bodies which is the most precious thing they have. So you see, Islamic fundamentalism is not so simple; it has its own logic.

A pause here to mention that I don't see this as a cultural war between the West and Islam. I don't believe that mothers of suicide bombers really want them to do this way even though they say so on TV (under duress and peer pressure, I think). I also believe there is a silent majority of Arabs who do not appear on TV who think Osama is a menace to society. But there is something rotten out there and it is coming from governments and mainstream organs who are letting angry hotheads have their place in society. Rabin got killed in part because it was safe for someone at a Netanyahu rally to call him a Nazi. Rabin denigrated his opponents -- remember his "propellers" comment? There are reasons to be angry, but we all need to tone down our words. Words are not as cheap as we thought. I still cling to the perhaps naive hope that the default position is that all humans value life and the lives of others. Restore dignity, mutual respect and hope for the future and you will restore the default.

Meanwhile, I am also relieved to see signals within the Moslem world that a certain amount of rethink is taking place, although so far out of self-interest with no egalitarianism intended. In Yemen the government is rounding up imams and sending them to be re-educated and letting it be known that certain types of public discourse are off-limits. There is a movement to get a fatwa (religious decree) from Saudi Arabian clerics that those who enter the US on a visa are obliged under Islamic law to follow US law and not cause disorder within the society that permits them entry. Unfortunately, the rationale is more to protect other Moslems in the US than to temper the zealotry of the theology emanating from Saudi Arabia. Many Arab sheikhs and governments are losing tons of money from economic damage caused by this attack; they will have to consider the reality that this terrorism is bad for business. Some of Bin Laden's family gave Osama backdoor support; now the whole family has become a leper to the business community. Italy's Berlusconi's comments about the current state of Arab and Islamic culture hit a nerve among Arab intelligensia -- beyond being defensive about them, there is a realization that there were some truths to his words. This last comment is based on an article by Zvi Bar'el in today's Haaretz who reports on Arab media commentary following the Berlusconi speech.

There is nothing wrong with religion and even having fundamental religious beliefs. The problem is the imbalance which exists when certain values such as Truth transcend all other values offered by religion, such as Peace and Kindness and the belief that people less “religious” than you are somehow inferior beings who don’t deserve to be treated kindly. In Genesis it says that the People of God looked down upon the People of Man, acted with them as they wished, the world became full of Violence, and God brought upon the World the Flood. You can read this allegory to the allusion that Fundamentalism begat Man’s Inhumanity to Man which resulted in Domestic Violence and finally Divine Destruction.

One more point – I would be thrilled if someone would explain to me how a religious movement that rejects the decadent lifestyles of the West promises as its ultimate reward to its martyrs an eternity of excess of these same decadent pleasures. I personally have found most of the decadent pleasures I have experienced to be overrated; the seduction is in the anticipation more so than the experience. Behind the ascetic is a sick deprived animal instinct waiting to let loose. Pardon my French but what it seems these mullahs really need is a good fuck which they’re obviously not getting. I heard a good suggestion – if you want to do justice to bin Laden, give him a sex change operation and send him back as a woman to live in Afghanistan!

Now to my recent visit to Israel and Jordan. 

I went to Israel on a special visit for the purpose of religious pilgrimage and thanksgiving following a successful year of business and full recovery from my stomach condition with which most of you were familiar. I wavered several times before making the final decision to go less than a week in advance; it didn’t help that Delta canceled all flights to Israel for 6 months leaving me without a ticket. I went along with my roommate and business partner. It didn’t help that an hour before I was to leave to the airport, Ben Gurion airport was shut down because a flight that had departed Tel Aviv had just blown up over the Black Sea and my dad was “strongly suggesting” I cancel my trip. Instead, I switched to El Al (which I have always tried to avoid due to the extra security!) and upgraded to Business Class for an extra $2,000 and was determined to go first class all the way and have a great time. Needless to say, I had a great time doing so!

Not every Moslem who makes Haaj to Mecca supports the policies of Saudi Arabia so my visit is not a political statement in support of the government’s policies. Nothing I saw or heard made me change my overall opinions that the status quo is not in Israel's interest or the right way to go – clearly the Israeli consensus has a hardening point of view and my opinion is different because I challenge some of their assumptions and conclusions. However, my visit is a statement in the sense that I am not going to curtail visits to the region due to terrorism; to do so would be to abdicate and to give them victory. Just as I did not withhold my visit to Israel, I also did not hold back from visiting my good friends in Jordan even though the perceived risk factor of making the trip has increased – every Israeli thought I was nuts to be going there but I am used to everyone telling me I am nuts for going anywhere.

A year ago, I arrived with optimism and saw everything disintegrate within 10 days. I could feel the tension lifting as my plane took off from Israel a year ago; this year the tension is everywhere in the world. This year, I had very low expectations which were sure to be exceeded. I was happy enough that I didn’t need to be as paranoid as I expected. The Israelis have become used to the low intensity and rather predictable nature of the warfare and the traffic jams at 2am on a Friday night are at full blast. They don’t expect crazy things to happen there because, they figure, they are crazy enough that the Arabs should fear such consequences. Nevertheless, you can’t walk more than a few blocks without seeing some memorial to some terrorist act. Every few blocks is a rock with names on it; here a bus stop, there a disco entrance. You never know if you’re in the wrong place at the wrong time and these are all very ordinary places for one to be. You can’t bypass them.

It is surreal to sit in the King David Hotel with all our elite being served by a staff of about 100 Arabs while a war goes on outside and in their villages. Why wouldn’t someone just want to come in and either poison or shoot a few hundred princes of the next generation who are all these obnoxious young New Yorkers sitting in such a lovely hotel spending as much in a day as these people perhaps make in a month?

No doubt the world situation plus the impression that Israel is a high risk place has yielded an impossible tourist situation. Also, the number of students abroad in the country is way down this year. Hotels are closing, downtown Jerusalem is quiet, taxis have no work – my taxi at the airport said he waited 2 hours for me and the taxi at the Dan Tel Aviv hotel (one of the city’s best) said he waited since 4am for me to come out at 9:30 and that he was at the head of the line. My taxi drivers all had stories – one was the driver for Goldman Sachs; within a week of the WTC bombings they closed up shop and left the country. Another driver was a prominent Arab food and beverage manager out of a job. I was one of the last people to eat in the gourmet room at the King David Hotel; it closed for the time being right after the holiday. (By the way, the food in the hotel was excellent and the best it’s been in years.) The arcade at the Jerusalem Hilton is almost completely vacant. Galleries have zero business. It is very sad. A few happier points though: Kiryat Shmona in the North has been quiet for over a year and they are rebuilding and feeling pretty good. Domestic entertainment is good business – my friend in Tel Aviv has a nightclub and a restaurant and he’s got 1,500 people a night packing his 4-story disco. Also has a massive security force with dogs and Russkies to boot. But there is no insurance that can be bought to protect against the effects of a terrorist attack.

Not to profit by other’s misfortune, but Israel has had problems all the way back to 1988 when the Intifadah started. I’ve been a tourist there now for 18 years. No matter what happened, the prices never fell and the Israelis always tried to grab you. Now it’s different. The prices are dropping to reasonable levels and the Israelis are just glad you’re there; “pay whatever you think is fair” is what they say now. They are losing so much money they just don’t care anymore. Frankly, I’m not all that upset to see a little more humility here and a bit of appreciation and kindness for the tourist (as well as value for my money). I went out of my way to pay for upgrades (and received courtesies from grateful management for even higher upgrades) and to buy things I don’t usually buy – they need the business and Israel may never be this reasonable again. It should be noted that given the fact that the major hotels are over 90% vacant (even during the Gulf War it wasn’t that bad), they are cutting some corners as well but I really can’t say anything bad considering the situation. It is a special situation.

The whole world is suffering; the Regency Hotel arcade in Hong Kong is 95% vacant. The Royal Jordanian flight from Tel Aviv to Amman had 4 people on the Airbus 320 jet; once aboard we were all invited to sit in first class! (The plane was full from Jordan to Israel with Israelis on their way home from holidays in Asia.) El Al flights were full; they are flying most of the flights in and out of Israel these days (they don’t fly to Jordan though).

Funny thing – I was more nervous about returning to New York. Israel seems safer; the Israelis seem to have a better handle on how to deal with problems and security measures are tighter. In the US, it’s too easy to get your hands on nuclear missiles and move them around. I figure the Islamists don’t want to blow up Jerusalem and lose Al-Aksa. In New York you could kill lots of Americans and not hit too many Arabs – what few get hit will just go to Paradise faster, the bombers seem to think.

Tel Aviv is still a pretty ugly city and it needs a real good London-type fire so that they can rebuild it. But when you sit in the city square and see a little sign in lights that says “Chag Sameach” (Happy Holiday) and a little blue Jewish star, in a strong way that’s all you really need to know. Be it ever so humble, there’s no place like home. The dances in Liberty Bell Park in Jerusalem marking the end of the holiday are special – a square filled with Jews from all over the world with a band and, at the end, everyone joins together and puts arms around shoulders and sings songs late into the night (ie: “Hamalach Hagoel Oti [The Angel Who Saveth Me]”).

The King David Hotel faces the old city walls of Jerusalem. It has a charm and personal service touch that the other hotels in Israel don’t have and they do not cut any corners. I paid an insane amount of money to stay there – $435 a night for 2 nights (which was a 25% discount) but I was treated to an upgraded 2 room “club” suite with an old city view. It is the only place from the Western side that you can see the Temple Mount / Al Aksa. Sunrise overlooking Jaffa Gate is a treat (although not nearly as beautiful as the view of Damascus from my room in the Cham Palace Hotel – that is still the most beautiful morning vista I have ever seen). For a Jew on a Jewish holiday, there is no better piece of real estate in the world than what I had. To pray from the porch of that private suite is the equivalent of a Saudi prince having a box suite overlooking Mecca.

For me, every street in these cities has memories. Places I visited with various people, went on dates, saw things happen... It is emotional just to walk around. It is also hard to pass by the spot where Rabin was shot; it is a memorial too, of course.

My friends in the country all encourage me to live there. No one in the US seems to care where I live. My business might well be more profitable to run out of Israel – all our costs would be lower. And I’d rather take a bullet here than choke in the subway below 42nd Street on the way to the office. That’s not how I envision things ending for me.

I had roughly 30 conversations during my 10 day visit to take the temperature. I didn’t make notes while I was in the country because I wanted to let things sink in and just write down what I remembered after I left. In a separate addendum, I give you highlights of those conversations. It is interesting to read through that, particularly since I really spoke to a full cross-section of people, but the best thing I could’ve done is to just let a video camera roll and for people to just watch a replay of the conversations. If Arabs and Jews could just watch a day’s worth of conversations of people talking about what they think of everything, they would learn a lot about each other. Someone should produce this and just let it run on TV for a full day. 

This week I read in the New York Times that Sari Nusseibah, Arafat’s new Jerusalem representative, made an impressive speech at Hebrew University last week. He is telling truths although he is telling them to Israelis, not Palestinians. He said the Palestinians should stop insisting on right of return to Israel, stop blowing up pizzerias and start trying to appeal to Israeli public opinion, without which it will never get anything. Mr. Nusseibah has a bit of guts to talk this way; his arm was broken several years ago by militant students on a campus who didn’t like his speeches. He represents a glimmer of hope for the future though I am afraid he wouldn't last 5 minutes in power in Palestine. Until leaders of Israel and Palestine tell their people the truths they must be told, each will continue to believe they can have it all and have peace at the same time.

The following is what I would consider the Consensus in Israel as of October 14: People are confused. They don’t know what Israel should do. That’s been the situation for several years now. Over 80% support Sharon even though he does little and doesn’t appear to know what to do either. Peres is a bit looney chasing after more talks about nothing. Or maybe Sharon is just waiting for the right moment to pounce and perhaps finish them off – in 2 weeks they could finish the Palestinians off if they really wanted, the majority think. The current situation is tolerable, even if it lasts for a long time. The risks of making peace appear to be higher than the rewards. Barak offered more than the consensus was willing to give; Arafat was an idiot for not accepting the offer and is either afraid to deal or is simply not interested in ever dealing, they say. His weakness testifies to the fact that his people are not interested in ever dealing. Israelis are offended and insulted that Arafat didn’t at least counteroffer; instead he just walked away and made an Intifadah. Islam is hopelessly irreconciled with Israel. After 5 years of “jihad” speeches, the Israelis have come to believe such speeches. “If we compromise and the Palestinians continue attacks, then we have to go in and take back everything and that will be harder than the current situation.” Right now, the US holds the initiative; the Israelis should stay quiet and see how things go. No one knows what comes next – maybe Bibi, maybe Barak. No new talent on the horizon. There is nervousness that US public opinion will blame Israel for the terrorism in the US, despite the fact that the acts were being planned even while the peace process was at its peak a year ago and the fact that the suicide bombers came from well-off families, not exactly from the refugee camps of Gaza. Even though tourism is down, Israel has other industries. Arafat can control the violence when he sees it as an affront to his authority. He is toning down the violence now but not really [this is before the Ze’evi assassination]. The current state of war is a business that benefits elites in the Israeli and Palestinian communities; they would lose money and political power if the war stopped. (Personally, I think there would be more business if the war stopped and I can’t see too much benefit to the Palestinians since the casino closed a year ago. One analyst agreed with this point and said that the PA is losing money hand over feet and the Israelis are quite happy to let them bleed till they self-destruct.)

One hopeful sign: Israelis show a majority in favor of heavy concessions to someone other than Arafat. They are not so much against Palestine as they are against him because he has no credibility with them.

To give you an idea of the gamut of people I met: I spent a day in the Galilee with Jewish and Arab lawyers. Met with the secretary of a national committee on bioterror response whose son is a commander in Hebron who just got his beret after a 100km march and led the unit that overtook the 2 neighborhoods in Hebron that the government just agreed to pull out of. After lunch with that person, he handed me over to another colleague who was on his way to Hebron to stand with Palestinians in a demonstration against the Israeli army. An attorney who just built a nightclub; another attorney who just built a hair salon and a bridal palace. Telecons with a guy on reserve duty in the Golan Heights followed by a telecon with one who got shot by a terrorist who crossed over from Lebanon in a handglider; a cousin who hosts a monthly sing-a-long at her house for 30 people, a fellow at Price Waterhouse who reviews startup business plans, some friends and partners in Jordan and quite a few economists and political scientists.

A few suggestions of my own:

1. Make a decision between Plan A or Plan B (or combine elements of both) and move forward decisively– Plan A is to work with Arafat, make a deal and go forward. So that people on both sides can have an attempt at having a life. Take a risk. Do it honorably and don’t look to impose or humiliate. Handle the right of return creatively – this has always been the toughest issue to solve. One solution that would work is to give Palestinians land and money if they go to the Palestinian state and to hold such incentives open for 18 months. Or they can participate in a lottery to be held in 3 years for one of X number of slots to return to Israel. However, by then their privileges will have expired. Very few will give up the sure thing to play the lottery. But at least they will have made the choice. This option was presented to the Israelis by the Palestinian negotiating team at Taba last December but it didn’t move in the overall context of the negotiations. Plan B is to kick out Arafat and the whole Tunis crowd, take it over and go back to 1983 with separate deals for each of the clans that control the various cities. Or, kick out Arafat, withdraw and let the UN/EEC govern the place for a year while the Palestinians set up elections and implement statehood. See also Paragraphs 3 and 7.

2. Stay out of the US war and don't get into a fight with Bush (which will turn into a fight with America). Bush is against Arafat, Syria, Iraq and Iran -- he will eventually give them hell. Bin Laden doesn’t care about the Palestinians. Iraq’s capabilities against Israel are limited. The Arabs are self-destructing right now viz. the Americans because they can’t stop playing both sides. Even now the Egyptian press is still rabidly Anti-US and the Saudis are not cooperating. Over the long term, the Americans have more affinity toward Israel than the Arabs because both countries are Western-style democracies and have feelings toward each other on a human basis, and there is going to be a sea change in American attitudes toward the Arab world which will not benefit the Arabs. Gulf oil is becoming less important, particularly since now Canada is becoming the #1 source of imported oil into the US.

3. Increase economy in the Palestinian areas. If people work and eat, they will be busy. Suicide terrorism in this region comes from the poor who feel death is better than life. There is also a strong financial incentive because a $10,000 bounty feeds a family for 2 years. If the suicide bombings don’t stop: Take these bombers and bury them in pig-skins, kill their families and destroy their homes. Carry the war to the sheikhs who write the checks to fund these bombers. There will no longer be any incentive to do this kind of thing and it will stop quickly. The Israelis are hoping the US will start to do this kind of thing, but I don’t think the US will do such things until the situation becomes more desperate.

4. Start to paint apartment buildings in Tel Aviv. The city needs some COLOUR!

5. The US needs better propaganda and policies in the Arab World and should coordinate with Arab regimes for this purpose. The US needs to be telling Arabs that it is not a nation of infidels who do nothing but drink and have sex but rather a nation of religious people which also allows complete freedom to Moslems to preach and practice Islam as they wish (not necessarily something that exists in the most Moslem of Arab countries!). Also that it is going to be more sensitive to the aspirations of common people in that part of the world and that it is not just going to talk about the wonders of democracy and liberty in those instances where it benefits the US but doesn’t benefit the ordinary person in that part of the world. And that it is going to be more sensitive to the collateral effects of its warfare on ordinary people in places such as Iraq. And that it is not out to humiliate and keep its foot on the heads of Arabs. The US needs to get the Arab regimes to get in front of delegitimizing extremists who call for all sorts of terrorism in the name of Allah – a coordinated effort at showing the US is a religious country and that perversions of Islam in the name of God are unacceptable. It may be that there is nothing we can say or should say that will satisfy the angry mobs -- but we should not write them off. No one is an angel -- there are reasons so many people are angry with us. We need to help create conditions for common people in these countries to have futures and to create viable outlets for their frustrated alienated intelligentsia moping about with an inferiority complex. If you have poor and hungry mobs, you cannot live safely in your home forever. They will come and burn your house down. On the other hand, we are not the only arrogant people on the block. Arab rhetoric coming out of official newspapers and mosques such as Al-Ahram in Cairo and the Al-Aksa Mosque in Jerusalem is quite hateful and supremist.

6. The US has a credibility gap both in Afghanistan and the rest of the region. Everyone is afraid that the US will drag them into taking positions that support the US but that the US is ultimately afraid to get their hands dirty in Afghanistan or elsewhere. Meaning for instance  that the US will send in air power to bomb from up high but not to give cover to Afghani rebel ground troops (which will increase the risk of US casualties) which is the only real way to win the war on the ground. The states in the region such as Iran and Saudi Arabia know that the US talks the talk but doesn’t walk the walk – ie: Saddam is still sitting pretty in Baghdad and has outlasted quite a few presidents. They want to be sure that the US will play to win if they are going to take sides. Frankly, Colin Powell doesn’t impress me as a guy who will impress them. Everyone knows he was weak in the Iraq war. I am aware of the risks of increased ground force combat but I think we have to create some facts on the ground, seize initiative and then -- having shown the parties we can and will kick ass -- push people into line. As long as we are trying to play ahead in chess without moving pieces, no one will commit. Also, we risk being overtaken by unforeseen events. If we don't really turn it on, we will be stuck in the snow for 6 months and we will be further rewarded with more instability in the neighboring countries as their publics have more time to rally against America.

7. As to current developments in the past week since I returned: Sharon and Arafat are both trapped. Arafat cannot give in to Sharon’s ultimatum and survive. He cannot escape the consequences if he doesn’t give in. Netanyahu and Barak lost their credibility – and their jobs – after they issued ultimatums which expired and didn’t act on them. Sharon has issued an ultimatum and must act if he is to keep his job. If he doesn’t act, he will lose deterrence and invite more such attacks. The assassination of Zeevi crossed a line; he was a minister in the government (he would not have been had the assassins waited another 6 hours). The PFLP chief that the Israelis assassinated was not a minister of the PA. So I expect the US to ignore Ramadan as to the war effort and for Sharon to ignore international pressure with regard to the PA. (Besides, the Arabs have shown a high tendency to initiate wars during Ramadan so the argument is a joke really.) My suggestion here is to exile Arafat to someplace abroad; have the UN or the EU put in a governor for a year and hold elections for a new leader from within the territories. Then let them have a real state. I think this would be the best situation for everyone concerned. Nobody wants Arafat; they are just afraid of Hamas becoming the alternative. So the solution involves managing change. As soon as anything reasonable happens in Palestine, Sharon will be history and the Israelis will put up someone to deal with the new situation. Who that will be I don't know yet -- neither do they. But the goal should be clear -- the Israelis get out, and a new cast of characters at the top.