Free Formula at my Crib, YEAH, BABY!
New York City is a place where it
seems that there is a lot of variety but really often you are looking at
the same stuff just all over the place. The guy I want to be in New York
is the Panini Man. His sandwiches are in just about every lunch place you
can find. There may be many different places to have lunch, but they all
have the same panini sandwiches – and they’re not too good.
Before I start with this month’s
discussion of the Middle East, here are some reactions to last month’s
article. They ran across the board, but you’d be wrong if you thought all
Arabs hated it and all Jews liked it.
i'll tell u what the real problem
is, its that most sunni arabs of my generation dont know how the shiites
feel about sunnis, and especially how the iranians feel about arabs. and
the arab governments are too scared to tell them. and all this roots from
a history of problems between the persians and the arabs. i personally
try not to talk politics or even think politics, but all the region is
surrounded by it now.
another problem is that most people
around the world and indeed the dumbasses here in the region think its
about religion, and the tools (i.e. the terrorists doing the dirty work)
have been brainwashed and have no idea its not about religion either.
if any of these people took time
to actually learn about their religion and think for themselves they might
see what the world deems as terrorism, we also deem and terrorism. it is
against Islam and Islamic teachings. anyways, i feel that as the world
advances the people seem to be getting dumber... its shocking.
anyway well written article, hope
ur well and taking good care of urself.
Yasir in Oman
Wow, is that you Ivan! Or maybe I
should call you Ivan the terrible! Listen to yourself you are calling for
Armageddon against Israel’s enemies.... So that’s what defeat and humiliation
does to people... I owe you man, reading your article made me realize that
there is nothing wrong with us, the Arabs & Muslims are not subhuman,
rather they are just humans, and anyone subjected to the same conditions
will do the same thing. I could never understand and really grasp how someone
could blow himself up killing scores of innocent people in the process,
but now I can see where they come from, why do we have all those crazy
fanatics amongst us: its people like you; who at the first sign of things
not going 100% their way call to nuke the world. I suppose it is the “superiority/inferiority”
complex the jews have had throughout history, just remember that neither
the Arab, Muslims nor the Persians have ever took part in your miserable
existence, on the contrary the golden age for your people and culture (after
the destruction of the temple) was under our rule.
I don’t even want to begin to respond
to your fallacies, half truths or racial calls and invitation to commit
genocide, all I hope that there are not many like you around in either
side of this conflicts. You are not really different than Osam and his
gang, both are fanatics who are willing to destroy the world to get at
his enemy. Come on man pull yourself together I though you were a moderate
educated person with sense and morality.
Go back to your senses.
Ps. your baby is really cute.
Marwan in Bahrain
what you wrote gives shivers in the
back, but I believe you're right.
Unfortunately so.
I too believe war with Iran and
Syria is ineluctable.
OK, it's one (good) thing to anticipate,
the important question is :
"now, what should I do to get prepared?"
It is difficult to answer.
Marc from France in Israel
This was your best Globalthoughts
yet. And I even agreed on everything you said!!!!!!
Avi in USA
I agree with your thoughts. The world,
including UN secretary Mr. Annan, does not think the same way.
Gury in Jerusalem
OK, onto this month’s commentary.
Israel/Lebanon – So, after a month
to think about things and calm down, any thoughts looking forward and any
reconsideration of what was said last month? So far, the Israelis are putting
in orders with the US for a few billion dollars in weapons systems to compensate
for the fact they were hit bad with anti-tank missiles. They might want
to look at anti-rocket defenses for the civilian population but few think
it will work or that it is worth the money against the small amount of
damage that the rockets cause. Assuming that advantage goes to Hizbullah
sitting on its terrain during a winter fight in muddy and cold Lebanon,
I expect quiet until at least the spring. The French foreign minister told
the Spanish foreign minister last month that in 4-5 months it could be
electric again and considering that Olmert is at 22% in the polls and Israelis
across the board are extremely upset at the incompetence with which this
campaign was run and the fact that they feel their deterrence has suffered
a major blow, I can’t see how another round of fighting can be avoided
to in effect try and set things straight. Nevertheless, I think that won’t
happen, and I’ll say why below.
I think the main reasons the Israeli
public are angry at their leadership are that 1. They set the objectives
too high and couldn’t meet them instead of setting the objectives low and
exceeding them. Olmert and Peretz made the mistake of running off with
their mouths before they had the results to show for it. This means that
the failure was not in not winning the war but in not managing the public’s
expectations and that people would have been satisfied with a lesser result
if told that this was the intended result. The actual result wasn’t that
bad and Olmert had good reasons for not going all the way. That last point
was discussed in the last posting. 2. The war was just run incompetently
in that orders kept changing hourly and the politicians seemed unable to
make decisions. Perhaps the army brass knew what it was doing and they
were hostage to the indecisive political leadership but to the soldier
on the field it all seemed amateur hour. The final weekend land incursion
after a cease-fire deal was reached really seemed like a waste and it was
probably a mistake to start the war so quickly before things were ready.
3. People all over felt that the government did not deliver resources to
those who needed it – to civilians in shelters and to the army units on
the ground. People just didn’t have things they needed.
Israelis are great improvisors but
evidently not great enough (this of course is the biggest disappointment
to the Americans and other Arabs who stuck their necks out banking on the
Israelis to win – if you hoped that the Israelis could succeed where America
failed, you were disappointed in this round), and it could also be that
the corruption problem in Israel finally reached the point where people
have had enough – everybody got fat and broken and nothing was lean and
mean in the Israeli fighting machine and everybody realized it. So yes,
heads should roll. But because the rot is so extensive, choosing whose
heads to roll is the problem. In essence, since everyone is at fault, nobody
is at fault and perhaps it is just best to use the people you’ve got and
just buckle down and work and set things straight. That may be the way
the country goes. This problem has been a decade in the making with virtually
everyone in power at fault since they’ve all been running the country at
one time or another. I see this as positive – maybe they’ll actually fix
what’s broken now that they’ve been burned and realize that blaming or
replacing one side or the other really isn’t going to solve anything. On
the other hand, because everyone is at blame, then nobody is to blame and
nothing will be done to fix the rot. As I will say below, some things may
be fixed and others won’t. I think there may be a fresh look at diplomatic
options but that corruption in the allocation of resources will probably
continue.
During the past month, a few things
became apparent that were not clear a month ago. First, I wasn’t yet seeing
the various negative articles in the Arab press inside Lebanon about what
people think of Hizbullah. Nasrallah may be having big rallies but he is
not making great friends in Lebanon as he looks like a guy trying to take
over the country. Second, much less Iranian money is actually reaching
Lebanese than originally thought. It was great PR but not that much in
reality. These two developments negate a good number of comments
I made about the dangerously rising hopeful militant mood that I felt was
caused in Lebanon by this stalled campaign. The Iranians also have big
problems inside Iran and money is scarce, especially with chicken prices
going up 10% during Ramadan. The new president was elected on a populist
platform and isn’t delivering the goods and the Iranians are not thrilled
sending money to Lebanon and Hizbullah. There are real problems going on
inside Iran; something that isn't obvious. This isn’t helping him, and
it is interesting that the Hamas in Gaza also can’t deliver the goods because
they are being boycotted. It is a fact that economic sanctions still count
for something in the long run because if you can’t deliver the goods, you
gotta deal with the rest of the world. Hamas realizes this and as much
as they have their ideology, they know they can’t deliver anything to the
Palestinians as long as they are under boycott and at some point they will
be voted out. Fatah is gaining in the polls if they could just become straight.
The falling price of oil may be seasonal and a product of pre-election
engineering between Bush and the Saudis (I promise the price will go back
up right after the November elections) but that’s the most important thing
to bring the Iranians and Syrians to the table if nothing else does (and
it won’t because they know it too – check out Bob Woodward’s new book quoting
a meeting this summer between Bush and the Saudis agreeing to step up oil
production temporarily before the elections).
There is a reason to be optimistic
– putting aside what happened and looking forward – let’s say the Israelis
make another war in Lebanon. What can they accomplish? Not very much –
tear up the country and spend billions of dollars just to throw Hizbullah
out of their bunkers to say we got even? It will trash another year of
economy for the country and 6 months after they pull out (which they will,
assuming they don’t want to be in Lebanon) Hizbullah will be right back
where they were because there is no real Lebanese authority and the Syrians
are intent on keeping a presence in Lebanon. If you deal with Syria and
ONLY if you deal with Syria, you can clean up Lebanon. If you get off the
Golan, you knock off Syria, isolate Iran 600 miles away and the Palestinians
have to deal with you because Hizbullah and Hamas are out of business from
their Syrian and Lebanese bases.
I don’t know if I’ve stated the obvious
on these pages (sometimes it just escapes mention), but The main lesson
of the past 5 years with Barak’s Lebanon withdrawal, the Gaza withdrawal
and Hamas’s election all thrown into the mix is that the Israeli unilateral
approach won’t work. That’s why Olmert and Peres have declared that track
dead. It was a great idea for all the right reasons and it made sense when
you had every reason to believe that you had nobody to talk to and could
build a wall around the problem but it just doesn’t work in the real world.
That doesn’t mean that all hope is lost. It means that it’s a waste of
time to declare the end game and try to enforce it without the other side
agreeing to it. All you get is a unilateral concession from Israel which
is appreciated by nobody, a new border which is recognized by nobody and
which is taken as a withdrawal in weakness by the Arab world which ultimately
leaves the Israelis without quiet and feeling even more vulnerable and
against doing anything at all except feeling that war is inevitable. So
it’s stupid and doesn’t achieve anything. The Oslo problem was that there
were agreements that were vague and not enforced and that there was no
end game in sight but only interim agreements that did not create hope
for the future.
So to solve this problem, whatever
the solution is going to be, you’re going to need the Israelis and their
opponents to sit down and agree to whatever they’re going to agree to.
It’s the only way forward. The optimism is that Lebanon now (a country
which itself has no real issues with Israel) is really the key to all this,
and that's something that wouldn't be true if it weren't for the events
of this past summer. Think about it – Saudi Arabia spent billions of dollars
over the past 15 years building up Lebanon. That’s all been lost. The Saudis
are not idiots and they know that they will be fools to invest a dime into
Lebanon because if there is no peace between Lebanon and Israel that investment
will be completely at risk. You were burned if you thought with all due
logic that Hizbullah would keep the peace because they didn’t give a shit
about Lebanon. Neither do the Syrians if it suits their Syrian interest
and if it isn’t good for them, they’ll let Lebanon burn too in the hope
that chaos will force them into the void. You can’t solve Lebanon without
dealing with Syria, and the Palestinians also have something to do with
this because they’re a big part of Lebanon and the Iranians are using Lebanon
as a base against Israel with the Palestinian issue as the hook. The Jordanians
would very much prefer to have a stable Lebanon on their border; they don’t
need trouble going on around them even though every time Lebanon crashes,
it means more Arab tourists prefer Amman to Beirut. But still, every time
something sneezes in the region, tourists bypass Jordan and investment
falters. They need stability around them and, as I said last month, in
the event of nuclear war, they and all the Palestinians around them will
be toast more than anyone else. As I said earlier, the Israelis must be
realizing that even if the last campaign in Lebanon seems like unfinished
business, is going back to war over this a promising alternative? The best
alternative for the Israelis is to go for peace, if it’s possible, and
that is what Olmert and Co. really want and will go for if they can – if
it’s real, they will survive politically because that’s what the country
really wants too and why they elected them in the first place. Especially
when everyone there thinks that peace can’t work – it requires a strong
push by leadership to deliver the goods and to do it in a real way that
convinces people that it’s for real, which means that the next round of
peacemaking might be more successful than the past because everyone is
so cynical about its prospects which will force leaders to get real. If
all that Olmert can offer is the prospect of another war, he must be replaced
because nobody trusts him to run it. Put another way, Olmert was elected
to make peace, not to make war.
So all in all, this provides an excellent
incentive for the Saudis and Israelis to be talking to each other. (It’s
also interesting because Silvan Shalom, the previous foreign minister,
said he met with every Arab country except for Saudi Arabia.) The two regional
mafiosi need to make a deal about Lebanon in order for the Saudis to rebuild
that country. Nobody else will rebuild that country so in effect Lebanon
has no future at all until the Saudis and Israelis decide its future. Since
Lebanon requires dealing with Syria and Palestinian issues and I’ve also
said on these pages that a Sulha on a religious level between the Saudis
and the Israelis could create a whole new atmosphere on a global level
between Jews and Moslems, it really makes sense to go this route and try
to engineer a holistic solution to these problems via the Saudis. The new
Saudi leadership is quite responsible and, above all, has the most to lose
against the Iranians and it is just a fact that the Saudis need a strong
and reliable regional ally against Iran and the Israelis are just the best
situated to do this. They may be despicable Jews to the Wahabis but to
these Sunnis that beats their fanatical Shiite neighbor to the east. I
have long felt that if the Israelis and Saudis can move forward, everything
else will ultimately fall into line. I think Silvan Shalom had it backward
– the Saudis have the gold and Mecca – they’re the first ones to talk to.
Another aspect to the Saudis – they are courting American Jews and even
Israelis. They have differences with Bush but realize that they prefer
Republicans to Democrats. Bush Jr. is not Bush Sr. (Sr. wouldn’t have invaded
Iraq), but he has a world view and runs a pretty stable administration.
He lets his people run their departments and doesn’t change his mind much.
Unlike Clinton who issued new statements each month. So Bush represents
a certain stability and he offers a real possibility of dealing with Iran
in his last 2 years in office. They have to deal with Bush and they don’t
want Qatar stealing their thunder. So they’ve made the decision to deal
with Bush and America, and Israel.
As to Syria, I don’t know what Olmert
really has in mind about Syria. He talks tough about them but in the end
the Israelis were scrupulous about avoiding any entanglement with Syria
in the past campaign. I don’t think they want to replace this regime with
what might be a fanatical religious regime and a good part of the Israeli
strategic establishment is not thrilled with the American experiment in
Iraq. Therefore, I think they don’t want to mess around with Syria and
wind up with something that might be off the wall there. Assad is weak
and an idiot but at least he has a stable regime and he seems to be very
receptive to dealing with Israel. If you stand back and look at the whole
picture, it doesn’t matter what you think of Syria – the important point
is that Syria is not an existential threat to anyone but Iran is and the
immediate need is to get Syria away from being Iran’s toehold in the region.
Syria is also holding back Lebanon and so therefore it is the godfather
of that country. I have mentioned before that a substantial portion of
the Israeli strategic establishment wants to deal with Syria.
My friend Mohammed in Israel has
this to say and I value his opinion highly. People in Israel are forgetting
the war very fast and returning to the North for holidays and to do business.
Arabs in the area are cash poor and selling real estate below what it’s
worth. Olmert is weak and needs to show some kind of solution to divert
attention from the failure of the war. (I personally don’t think it was
a war, which is why I call it a campaign. Maybe 2% of the country’s military
was actually used; to me that’s a campaign, not a war.) So therefore he’s
interested in trying to deal with Saudi Arabia. (He certainly is saying
nice things about them, which I have been doing as well in the last few
months.) In order to deal with Iran, you have to get the Palestinians out
of the way because you need the Arab world with you on this one and once
you take away the Palestinian issue, the Hizbullah, Hamas and Iran have
nothing to say about it. It seems the Americans are applying a lot of pressure
on Israel to deal with the Palestinians to try and clear the decks so that
they can build a coalition to go against Iran, which everyone in the region
agrees is the Real Problem. Syria may be at odds with Saudi right now on
Iran and Lebanon, but if the Syria issue is resolved in the Israeli framework,
this also leaves Iran alone and much easier to deal with. Interestingly,
there is talk in Israel about compromising on the Golan which is why the
Likud has been raising a storm about the issue this week. Bibi could be
back in the prime minister’s chair within a year; perhaps even Barak could
make a comeback. But there is really nobody on the horizon that looks appealing
as a leader. Hamas and Abbas are also cornered; they can’t deliver under
this boycott. Neither the Jews nor the Arabs want another war in Lebanon.
The Israelis can’t win it and the Hizbullah doesn’t want to start another
war because they know the outcome will be worse the second time around
– they will be sure not to give the Israelis a pretext and as long as this
is the fact the Israelis ought not dare start a war because nobody will
think they are justified if they start it. [An interesting problem for
Lebanon is that one of the major criticisms of this war inside Israel even
among the rabbis is that too many soldiers died trying to minimize civilian
casualties and the ethics of war are being rewritten so that in the next
round the collateral damage will be greater. IC] The Arabs are confused
right now in Israel what to think about all this especially since things
in the Middle East these days are changing at a constant rate and they
are divided over whether or not the Arab world should have given Israel
the green light to do this to Lebanon. They took the brunt of the civilian
casualties in this last war even though they didn’t get either headlines
or resources. Their elected representatives don’t speak for them – 40%
of Arabs don’t vote for Arab members of Parliament; many don’t even vote
and they are increasingly cynical of those that try to be extremist when
they see them going to Arab countries and getting paid off by the word
– Bisharra is believed to have received over $10 million from Arab countries
and gets paid off when he goes to visit the Syrians and the others.
You have to keep in mind the Arab
citizens of Israel – they’re the ones in the middle who have the most to
lose if things get messy. They took the majority of civilian casualties
in the last round and know that they will continue to take the hit even
though they have zero influence in the process. I’ve always felt it was
a mistake for Olmert and Barak not to put any ministers in the government;
it really is an injustice and it would change things greatly if they did
so. The other Arabs have to be reminded that if you want to throw bombs
at Israel, you’re really hitting the Palestinians both inside and outside
Israel even more so. For all the business of the events of August, the
Israelis really weren’t all that threatened by it. Terrorized yes, but
not really put at major risk. If it were so, they wouldn’t be forgetting
it so quickly and I’m still not convinced that even with all the scandal
and rot that anyone truly will be fixed, for one thing because everyone
is at fault and because the damage wasn’t all that great. So in a sense,
since you can’t blame anyone and nothing really happened, nobody has to
do anything.
Here's a new name in Israeli politics
to keep in mind. Avishay Braverman is a guy in Labor who was promised an
important job in the new government. He didn't get it and now wants to
take over the Labor party from Peretz. He was the head of Ben Gurion university
in Beersheva and is considered a world-class economist. He has a good record
of making things work. He currently leads in Labor party polling 36-21
over Peretz. He has competition in the party, but he is a non-general with
a track record of success and is the kind of guy who has a real chance
at leadership if peace is on the agenda and Bibi turns out to be the Likud's
top man.
Back to the broader Middle East and
this month’s developments. Qatar is an interesting situation. They are
setting themselves up as mediators between Israel and the Arabs and there
is a steady stream of people coming through the country to meet with others.
The Americans seem not too thrilled; Bush recently refused a meeting to
the country’s emir and prime minister and there are talks of moving US
military facilities out of that country. Remember what I said also about
the tensions between the Qataris and the Saudis and the use of Qatar as
a wedge by the US and the increasing desire of the Saudis to get back in
the US corner. The issue is that the US wants to use that facility to attack
Iran and the Quataris are pretty cozy with the Iranians...On the Iranian
front, here’s why it’s going to be up to the US, Israel and very few others
to deal with this and the rest is all chatter: I was in Portugal and a
guy said to me, “What do we care about Iran? Maybe they’ll hit Spain but
not us. We can sell them anything and not worry about them.” As long as
people feel they can do business with them and suffer no pain, nothing
will constrain them and all the talk about peace, love and happiness is
just chatter from someone who has nothing to lose. The Russians are an
interesting case as well – they have what to lose from Iran in terms of
a bunch of fundamentalist muslims around them waiting to be leaked nuclear
technology from Iran, but the people running the show are not worried about
the future; they are a mafia only interested in what they can get from
Iran right now in their pockets, says my amigo in Moscow. If Iran nukes
Moscow, they will be sitting in their villas in London. So don’t expect
any responsible help from that end of the world.... Just remember, there’s
a reason why a bunch of secret service heads of Arab states and Israel
all met this week in secret and why they all want Hamas out of the PA –
it’s called Iran.
As for Iraq, I just think the Americans
are in a lousy situation. I don’t believe anything coming out of official
Washington on this war and I am very upset that the Pentagon is breaking
its word to the various soldiers and extending their tours. Nobody will
want to volunteer for an army that treats people this way. No matter what
happens in Iraq, if this is the way we win a war (which we won’t), we will
hurt when we have to fight a real war and nobody trusts the Pentagon. It’s
terrible long-term policy for the US. We ought to turn all these troops
around and deal with Iran and just arrange to finish up Iraq which is really
not producing anything for anyone at this point and just costing us billions
of dollars. I can’t see any benefit to this and do not believe that by
fighting over there we are making our world safer here in the US. I just
don’t get it and according to the Congressional accounting office this
war is costing us $2 billion a week – we should get a lot more for this
money by ploughing into regional development and education and negate the
idea that suicide and self-destruction are suitable options, but nobody
is smart enough to figure this out. By the way, the fact that the Israelis
are training the Kurds is no surprise to me – the Israelis have been involved
with the Kurds for about 40 years already. For whatever it’s worth, the
Kurd area is the only area that is peaceful. Even the Arabs from the rest
of Iraq are dying to move in there to escape the fratricide between Sunni
and Shiite.
As for Iran, let me conclude by stating
that I don’t know if the problem of Iran can be solved militarily or not.
Charles Krauthammer has an article this month about the Calculus of War
and it says the stakes would be really high if the US went to war. It may
be necessary but it really should be a last resort because it will be painful,
expensive and very messy. As I said last month, many will die but the question
is whether many more will die if we don’t deal with Iran. It may be that
the better way to solve Iran is to solve other regional problems and deny
the Iranians the grist for their fire. There may be good opportunities
here to test that route and I think the current desire among the parties
in the region is to test that route first.
One more point on this war against
terror. Of course, I am against terror but I am very uncomfortable with
what the US administration is doing. It is too easy for them to call someone
a terrorist for any reason and lock them up for years. It won’t be long
(and has already happened if you read a good number of the op-ed columnists
in the New York Times) that people will threaten to do this to people who
don’t do what they want. There is no way that such power will not be abused.
There is no reason to me that courts should be bypassed in the name of
national security. You can’t just throw people in jail, send them to third
countries and torture them without any oversight. It will lead to innocents
having their lives ruin and probably catch very few real terrorists. We
know from experience that coercion rarely leads to truth and that Guantanimo
alone was responsible for squandering whatever benefit of the doubt the
world might have given American post-9/11. One of the best reasons to throw
out the Republicans in the next election is that they are getting too many
powers and are going to cause real harm to the country’s image abroad as
well as to those who get caught up in this century’s version of the communist
witch-hunt. You’d think we’d have learned something in the last 5 years
and we haven’t. Creating a nation driven by fear is not going to make America
strong or respected in the world. I think that the country will soon figure
this out and vote them out. Especially as it becomes clear that the administration
is manipulating the petroleum price with the Saudis in advance of the elections.
I don’t have any love for the Democrats – their party has become captive
of left-wing extremist elements and they’re not terribly friendly to Israel
these days, but you need to clean house every decade or so in order to
maintain the checks and balances of our government, and it’s time to clean
house again and regain some balance that’s been lost. Bush may be very
sure of himself and his vision, but the people around him mostly don't
seem to believe in it, based on the information they have, and it seems
that the few that do believe it refuse to look at anything that doesn't
mesh with their conceptions. They don't seem to have any facts at their
disposal to prove otherwise.
Economy – It’s a needed break for
the world economy that oil went down but I think it’s a blip and that the
long term price will stay up. Real estate prices are going down in places
such as Miami, but New York has not changed much yet. Give it another year
and I think you will see more blood on the streets of New York. Residential
inventory is 80% higher than last year and rents are actually going up
quite a bit this year. But it still doesn’t make sense that a 2 bedroom
apartment in Manhattan is $1.1 million. So hold onto your hats.
Pope – People want a comment here.
I don’t have an opinion yet of this new pope, but I don’t think he’s stupid.
I think he meant to let the Moslem world know that he will deal with issues
related to their religion instead of sweeping it under the rug but I don’t
think he meant to insult the Moslem religion. My friend Mohammed says the
pope needs to tread more carefully when he talks about anything Islam because
the relations between the religions are just so tense that even saying
the word Moslem is likely to create a storm of protest. I of course like
the idea that the Pope discusses real issues and recognize that troublemakers
will take any opportunity to seize on anything he says to make a controversy
out of it. I hope he will say whatever he intends to say and say it clearly
instead of hiding behind obscure quotes from 500 years ago and doing so
in a way that creates plausible deniability for himself when someone notices
that he might have said something controversial. If Islamic extremism is
a problem in the world today, I want the Pope to take it on.
2008 Presidential Race – Hillary
Clinton will be the Democratic frontrunner until she gets knocked out of
the race if it remains true that 40% of Americans say that they would never
vote for her. Till now, you could never become president with such numbers.
Her saving grace is that people still like Bill Clinton and would vote
for her if they thought they were getting him. Americans read the Constitution
to forbid someone from serving more than 2 terms as president. Guiliani
is a contender from the Republican side but he is not popular among the
conservative Republicans, whose vote he needs to get past the primaries.
Senator McCain could be a contender but he has a tendency to self-destruct
and it is a long season to run for president. The problem for the Democrats
is that the party has been taken over by extremist leftists and they have
a horrible history of putting up losers as candidates because their primary
voters don’t represent the likely mainstream voters in general elections.
Pakistan Prediction -- I am predicting
that the wild card in the next year will be Pakistan. I think Musharraf
will not last another year. His new biography which spills too many beans
on his international colleagues while he is still in office is going to
make some of these colleagues decide that they could live without him.
They may not get rid of him, but they will be much less likely to cover
his ass from now on.
Business Hotels and Travel Experiences
– Away from politics. I find that all these airlines and hotels who tell
you they offer business class services are all the same and don’t really
offer things that I want as a business person when I travel. I just read
a comparison of 50 airlines and their business class cabins in the Business
Traveler Magazine and it’s amazing how commoditized it’s all become – basically
the only difference is in the degree of the pitch and recline and the width
of the seat. On airlines for example, they all give you the same stupid
amenity kits with things you don’t really need. Why not give you something
useful such as a smartly designed lightweight bag to carry your carry-ons
or toiletries? I’ve never gotten anything useful from all these flights
and you’d think someone would spend 5 minutes thinking of some way to distinguish
themselves from the others in this business. In hotels, I’d like to find
in my room a laptop and printer with easy access to tourist information,
TV programs that offer me something intelligent to watch such as something
about business or travel instead of HBO movies or even an exercise or relaxation
program that I can do in the room, snacks to eat when I come in at 10 at
night and have nowhere to go such as crackers, fruit, ready to eat vegetables
and hummus instead of just cookies and chocolate bars. How often do you
use the body gel and the hair conditioner? How about something to clean
your eyeglasses, dental floss and mouthwash, things you tend not to fly
with but that you really want. All the spas have the same menu of treatments
– facials, massages and various water treatments. It’s the same all over
the world. Wouldn’t you rather see a coach for an hour to work on improving
your memory or visualization techniques, have an adult playroom with various
games that test or build skills such as models or drawing or even computer
graphics instead of the regular gym or library that has one TV tuned to
one channel and a couch facing it. I really think that if someone rethinks
the concept of a business hotel or even a resort and tailors it to business
executives either to network with others in a city environment or a resort
to meet others in a relaxed retreat that it would be a great contribution
to the world of business and human relations. There is nothing along this
line that I see remotely yet. |