Today is Thanksgiving Day here in the U.S. and of course this year I have extra reasons to be thankful, among them that I have become happily married to Karen. As you can see, we have been married over 2 weeks and I am still here writing Global Thoughts, which means that things are calming down and I haven’t lost my marbles.

I suppose the biggest shock so far of the move for each of us was when she moved in and found the kitchen cabinets entirely bare, save for my emergency can of salmon sitting prominently in the middle of an empty refrigerator waiting for the next blackout or nuclear attack. And then when I walked into her bathroom and found it utterly full of THINGS women think very much they need, which is quite a marketing accomplishment considering that Karen does not view herself as part of the consumeristic herd. Karen assures me that Ingredients are necessary things to have and that they turn into Food; she has been keeping this assurance with many homemade yummies and today we are helping each other make Thanksgiving Dinner just as we did last year.

We decided to honeymoon next April; we will go to Jerusalem for the end of the Passover holiday and then return to the US via the Italian Amalfi coast and spend the weekend in a town called Positano. For now, we have been on holiday for 2 weeks just between the move, the wedding and a week of parties the week after. We did have some down time to just sit at home, look out the window, go grocery shopping together and do some of these trite things that are somehow special the first time you do them together. It is in certain ways a honeymoon, even if it is at home.

So far in all this, things are better than expected. Managing expectations throughout is, to me, the most essential part of the pursuit of engagement and marriage.

About the wedding: Sorry if you didn’t come. You missed the biggest show on the eastern side of the Mississippi River going on that week and the chance to meet other friends of Ivan and Karen who came from all over the world to be there.  Everything went as advertised and later I will post some sort of entertaining offering, but we just don’t have any material yet. If you did come, I thank you again for joining the party. 

Here’s my funny story about our wedding, which hardly anyone knows, even if they were in attendance. It was about 5:45 and I had gone by myself up to my room in the presidential suite of the Wyndham Hotel (it actually is the only place a president will stay when he visits Miami Beach because it is a secured facility) to get the marriage contract to bring down to the wedding, and I couldn’t get an elevator and even the hotel staff doesn’t know where the staircase is on that floor. The elevators were all on manual override taking people from the lobby to the rooftop lounges, where the smorgasbord was taking place. I went back into the room looking for a telephone, but earlier in the day the women had used the suite for hairdressing and the phones, all cordless, had all been moved around. This was a very large suite and I was running around in freakout mode going through all the bedrooms and bathrooms looking for a telephone. Finally, I found one and then got on the phone and yelled at the operator “This is an emergency. I am the groom of the wedding in this hotel; I am stuck in the presidential suite and can’t get an elevator and there are no stairs. This party ain’t going nowhere till I get down there so please send an elevator to fetch me!” The operator answered, “We know you’re up there, and we will send an elevator to get you.” About 5 minutes later, one finally arrived. Yes folks, it was that close.

Moving briefly to other items: Except for a few days, I have continued to monitor all that should be monitored in real time and of course the world has not been put on hold.

A few noteworthy points on the state of the world that should not be missed this month: 

1. The U.S. and Iran seem to have made some sort of accommodation with regard to Iraq, and Saudi Arabia is the loser from it. The Shiites are getting their due, and the Iranians are happy with this result. The Saudis, who are Sunnis and who hate Shiites (and I have found that many Sunnis around the world are terribly afraid of the Iraqi Shiites), have gone so far as to turn to the Russians for support, a country they have assiduously avoided for most of the past century. It is interesting that the US-Iran arrangements have been mostly ignored by the American media.

2. The global economy appears to be on an uptick, and the U.S. is also picking up. I am still sitting on cash and do not plan to be in the market, even though there is money to be made and my personal choice would be an I-Share (index-tied share) on the NASDAQ composite average which is so far up over 45% since 12/31/02. There is good money to be made sticking with foreign currencies given the US weak dollar policy and the Euro has been a lovely investment for the past year and a half. My business is in growth mode and reflects more hiring in the work place and it is clear that Dell is selling more computers and even Hewlett Packard has returned to profitability, which is what I said several years ago we needed to see in order to believe that a recovery would be underway.

3. Israel is still in a coma; nothing is going on, nobody seems to care and the appearance of pressure by the Americans followed by Israeli concessions on various items of contest is the same show we see every year and I don’t see any consequence from it, especially going into an election year. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Arabs get fed up and riot again, but it is futile to do so with Sharon in charge and no hint of replacements in the wing on either the Israeli or Palestinian side. If anything, Arafat is back in charge and the reimposition last week of the old cement monopoly between Arafat's cronies and the Israelis (something the finance minister had successfully tried to quash during the past year) is Exhibit A of corruption at the top on both sides that favors the status quo.  This past week's secret meeting between Sharon's son Omri and key Arafat people in London is Exhibit B that proves that Sharon knows he has to continue dealing with Arafat and the past few years of history shows that Omri is not the guy you send to talk about legal and security issues but rather personal monetary issues. One important insider point here: I very recently got a report on Bibi’s behavior at a meeting involving government ministers and visiting dignitaries. His revolting, arrogant and unpredictable behavior reaffirmed my earlier assessment that this man is not fit to be in a leadership position and remains extremely corrupt and parochial, despite any public attempts to reshape his image as having moderated over the years and learned some new tricks.

4. Beyond Fear by Bruce Schneier: Somehow this month I managed to read a very good book about Security issues. The Economist recommended it; the book discusses the costs and benefits of various types of security solutions and the realities and myths involved in assessing risk. One example: When the sniper shootings in the Washington area last year occurred, people drove places rather than walked. The odds of being injured or killed in auto accidents far exceeded the risks of being caught in the line of fire by the sniper.

5. I have read distinctly upbeat reports of reforms and improvements in India, China and various African countries. It will be increasingly hard to ignore them. Russia is still a wild card; Putin is definitely in charge and the country is by no means democratic, but the fellow who was recently jailed seems to have nobody sticking up for him. The consensus is that he crossed the line from business into politics and threatened Putin with investigations and an election. Putin seems to have convinced the business community that as long as they stick to business, they will be safe.