Finally home for awhile after being away quite a bit and dealing with family for the holidays. Karen and I sat in Central Park yesterday hearing the guitar man (thatguitarman.com), a guy who plays guitar on Sundays in the park if it’s over 70 degrees and has been doing this gig for 13 years. Bring your blanket or grab a rowboat in the lake and some foodies, take in the sun, water and city views, relax and enjoy. It’s in the category of best things in life are free.

After visiting some Arab countries last month, it’s now time to hear what Israelis have to say. No question there’s been some changes since the last time I’ve visited. I had a good time on this trip; Israel is becoming fun again. I was there for Independence Day and the streets were filled with people having fun in a way I haven’t seen for a good number of years. The Sheraton Hotels in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are 100% full and they are not giving late checkouts these days. Conversations are also more interesting because people can envision a future that is different and worth talking about and, although there is debate, there is also consensus in a manner I’ve never before experienced in this country.

Following are notes from my trip, then conversations with a cross-section of people which started halfway-through, and then my comments.

Continental from Newark to Tel Aviv, 10 hours. Flights to Middle East carry no pork products but plenty of shellfish and flight attendants say the fact that many Jews fly has no effect on amont of shellfish consumed by those not ordering kosher. Business lounge at Newark so sparse that unless you went to the bar, nothing to drink except water. In the 50-seat TV room, TV wasn’t working and nobody on staff seemed to know there was a problem. I found out it had been off for a day and nobody noticed. No pizzazz at all in business class; bagels without cream cheese at breakfast, for example. The only desert I’ve seen on American carriers is ice cream with chocolate sauce. On American flag carriers, as far as food as concerned, you might as well be bringing your own food, even in business class. Uri Shani, chief of staff of prime minister office under Barak, seatmate on plane: Was very noncommital about anything. Was the typical “I don’t know what’s going to happen. I hope everything will be OK” that I’ve heard before and hoped I wouldn’t hear again. No wonder nothing happened under Barak.

New Tel Aviv airport terminal is very nice; lot of distance from plane to the curb but moving sidewalks greatly help. Train to the plane gets you to Tel Aviv in 10 minutes but it’s not practical since it only runs once or twice an hour. Lots of traffic to Jerusalem and arrived in city just at 11am when the Memorial Day siren wailed and everyone got out of their cars to show respects to fallen soldiers.  That evening I attended a special service at the Great Synagogue with the cantor and choir with prayers for Memorial Day and Independence Day (the two holidays are back to back in a sad-happy forced paradox that somehow works). Following the service was a festive and tasty dinner with dancing at the Synagogue in their lovely ballroom. Guests of honor were Russian soldiers who were converts to Judaism. Lots of elderly Holocaust survivors who could hardly walk but were dancing up a storm with the young soldiers and various rabbis and dignitaries to the tumult of the very hard-working and entertaining Israel Parnes and his band. “When I am dancing here I feel like I am dancing on Hitler’s grave.” “We are experiencing what our grandparents could not even imagine and only prayed about.” I stepped out for about an hour to jaunt over to the pedestrian area of center city where you could take your pick of folk dancing, street entertainment such as a giant Elvis or a Russian musical concert, and David Broza live in Zion Square with fireworks overhead at 11. Kids bopping each other on the heads with these little gizmos they’ve been using for decades now in this country on this night of the year. A bit of late-night TV and the country has gone from just one channel and then two channels to now lots of channels with everything from 24 hour Israeli music videos (not bad for such a small country), gay programs, ads for feminine hygiene products for women soldiers, an Israeli C-SPAN-type channel (all Knesset -- all the time), and Jewish symphonic music. Lots of Hebrew subtitles on stations for immigrants and other stations such as BBC Prime so that people can learn the language. Ben Yehuda’s dream of a country where the prostitutes and policemen speak Hebrew is alive and well in 2005. 

Breakfast at hotel; Sheraton Plaza, Jerusalem. If you are on Starwood points, the room is without breakfast but you can buy it at 50% off. Brekkie is no big deal at this hotel and you could skip it. Overall, the food has gone down here. The rooms are also in great need of renovation and at the 3.5 star level. No food in the mini-bar (only stocked upon request and then on a non-refundable basis). Not even soap when I got to the room until I asked for it. 35% of their guests are Israelis and they take everything they can (TV remote controls, pages from the guest guide book – why they want to know at home when the coffee shop is open is beyond me). Went to the Western Wall – somebody was getting Bar-Mitzvahed and had their own little klezmer band following them around. Looked like someone from the Russian mafia. Coffee at a friend of my parents who have a house and gardens in Jerusalem of a size that means there is no price tag for it. They change the flowers weekly there. Stories of his days in the Irgun and World War II. Raised-eyebrow comments: He was in Auschwitz for 3 days and said he still didn’t know they were killing people there. During the war, he was in a foxhole with a non-Jewish Pole who told him that it was a shame that the Jews had killed Christ. He suggested that the Christians kill the Jewish God and get even, since they after all are the majority and their God is ‘better’. The Pole said “I can’t, and that’s the problem.” Visit to Begin Center, a museum dedicated to the life of Menachem Begin, across from Mount Zion in Jerusalem. New-wave presentation; you go from room to room and in each room is a movie with some 3-dimensional objects that also move. If you don’t speak Hebrew, you wear a wireless headset that provides simulcast translation. Very effective. The museum is a bit short on historical detail and obviously frames history in the manner in which is most favorable to Begin but the presentation technique is good. Dinner at “Lugar”, a bar which is now a kosher restaurant. I had all 6 excellent deserts that were prepared by the in-house pastry chef. Many restaurants in Jerusalem are going not only kosher, but glatt kosher. All in all, I had a wonderful day.

Jerusalem Post has been redesigned under its new management and it is a much better newspaper today. There is real competition now between the English side of Haaretz and the Post, and it is worthwhile to read both papers daily in hard copy if you are in the country. Yediot Achronot also launched an English-language website that is pretty good (ynetnews.com) and has a strong Singles component which can be entertaining. The English-speaking market in Israel has become important, particularly with regard to reaching Internet readers worldwide.

Friday – visit to Hadar silver factory and then to cousin in Ra’nana, which is one place to live like an Anglo if you want to live in Israel but pretend you are not really there. It is still Israel but a bit nicer. Still, you can spend all the money you want and built your palace but it is not America either inside the house or outside. Rooms are still small, you have to deal with the bureaucracy and the streets are still Israel. Visit to Modiin, a new city that is now building all the homes we saw on paper a number of years ago. The landscaping is still missing so I can’t judge (although I am told it may never be installed), and it seems cold and dense to the eye. When the light rail system is completed in 2 years and you can go from Modiin to center city Jerusalem, it will change things in Jerusalem, which is still in great need of renovation in the center city area. Right now, you can drive from Modiin to Jerusalem in about 25 minutes and the road system over the whole country has become excellent and very impressive. Spanking new highways everywhere you want them, some with electronic toll collection and no tollbooths anywhere. Late afternoon visits to relatives.

Saturday morning a great service at the Synagogue with 4 tenor cantors from around the world singing various compositions. Machers (bigwigs) walk and money talks – despite the many visitors in town that weekend, the only person who got an official welcome at the synagogue was my dad because he is a sponsor of the synagogue. Someone from Venezuela advises that Jews and Chavez get along well; the Jews get along because they know he’s entrenched. Lula in Brazil is doing very well. Here’s two good Heaven/Hell jokes I heard: (1) Rabbi comes to heaven and sits with God. Mealtime and God goes and brings out some tins of tuna and starts making tunafish and some celery. Down below the people are feasting. Later, they sit around and it’s mealtime again and God takes out some sardines and carrots and below the people are feasting. Exasperated, the rabbi asks, What’s going on here? We’re hardly eating and look at what’s going on down there. God says “For two people, it doesn’t pay to cook.” (2) Guy in heaven finds his air conditioning not working and calls the repairman in. Repair man refuses to fix it. Guy insists it is under warranty. Repair man says forgettaboutit. Guy says I’ll sue you. Repair man says “Where ya going to get a lawyer? They’re all down there...”

City center is quiet on Saturday nights. Hamelech Falafel and Shwarma (place of pilgrimage for me on King George Street) is under new ownership but still exists. Galleries are closed at night. The action is at the shopping malls and the stores in town are not really in good shape. It will get better after the area is redeveloped when the light rail arrives. One guy owns the whole area around Jaffa Road where the station terminates and he is waiting – a residential project built a few blocks west on Jaffa Road is a white elephant, too early for its time. I think Jerusalem and Tel Aviv could both use a boutique hotel of about 50-60 rooms run on a 5-star level. The cities have trouble supporting a 400 room 5-star hotel because of political instability and business interruptions, but there will be enough room for 50 rooms to be filled with people who are prepared to pay any amount to be treated like royalty when they visit. We are looking at a 400-unit real estate development project in center city Jerusalem that would be geared toward religious families from outside the country who want world-class apartments when they visit. In the tourist sector, the hotels prefer to go low-class with cheap hotel rooms at full occupancy; 92% of the foreign guests at the Sheraton come on one-off bus tours and if they keep filling rooms for people coming for 2 weeks once in their lives, they can make a good living from it. More so than repeat visitors filling up 50% of the rooms at higher prices. Some tips from Ilan at the front desk: Hotel is in midst of a 2-3 year renovation; top floor rooms are best now. Suite 1624 is nicest but runs about $1,100 per night. There are 12 Orthodox Jewish concierges in the Golden Keys order; a few of them are women in the US. The only 5-star in Jerusalem is the King David and it is good, but not that good. In Amman, the hotels are better and newer but the Four Seasons has a problem getting the rates they would like to get even though they are running full. Speaking of Jordan, the Israeli newspapers no longer list their programs. I don’t know why, but Lebanon’s Middle East TV is still listed.

Sunday visit to Galleries in search of art. Bought at Feferbergs, on the corner of Shalomzion Hamalka, caddy-corner to the David Citadel Hotel. Angel Bakery Café a good business lunch deal. Food here in restaurants has become quite good. $10 gets you salad, entree, rolls and juice. Meeting with Yair Biton, the city’s largest real estate developer and one of his bankers to get the ‘real story’. City center would be revitalized with subsidies to encourage culture and entertainment. Nightlife in center city is pretty dead. Little disposable income – even if you gave big discounts for locals to eat out, they wouldn’t. Moshe’s been reading business plans for years but has yet to find one that makes sense. Too many people here claim to be brokers and owners. Some selling the same land twice or claiming to be owners of things they don’t own. One guy spent 2 hours meeting with my dad as if he owned a parcel of real estate he didn’t own and the lawyer who set up the meeting didn’t check out the guy he brought to the meeting. This is a bit of a cowboy town for business and I still recommend more than usual scrutiny before dealing here and be sure to check out your own lawyer. Half of Jaffa Road is owned by the Armenian church and businesses pay $100 a month in rent but must fork over 40% of the sales price of their business if the new tenant is to get the same lease. Church has right of first refusal on these contracts. This helps explain to me why shopkeepers sit around and do nothing and don’t seem to care whether you buy or not. Real estate in Jerusalem has gone up, the rest of the country has not. Dan pays $850 monthly rent for 1,300 square feet in Mevasseret Zion, a suburb of Jerusalem about 15 minutes drive if no traffic. Dan (35 year old public servant) says Israelis feel Arabs are not reciprocating and that Abbas is not doing anything to dismantle terrorism infrastructure beyond ceasing fire for now, but he is OK with the Gaza pullout. Likes the Wall and it is being constructed right across his field of vision in the mountains across the valley. Ministries filled with politicos and lots of corruption. Intelligence is solid that Assad killed Hariri. Oded (political and economic analyst) confirms this point. Says Assad’s protege in Lebanon has virtually admitted it and that he was sent in to do it. Dinner at Joy Grill in Emek Refaim (German Colony) offers good food, but we still prefer the burgers at Norman’s. On next trip's list is Fink's, a hole in the wall tavern and famous bar that's been around for 50 years in the center of town which recently went Kosher. Is run very personally; owner has twice denied entry to Kissinger. About 6 tables and serves Eastern European old-fashioned food which is supposed to be very good. Reservations a must.

Itzik (around 40; communications director for charitable organization): Afraid that after disengagement, Jews will have had bad discourse with bad effect and there will be violence during the pullout. Sharon is improvising day to day, not optimistic; thinks Arabs will start shelling again after pullout and that it will be impossible for Israel to bomb Gaza at that point.  Itzik is heavily to the Left, by the way. Doesn’t know what Sharon intends. If it is all about a Wall and pullout of Gaza and goodbye, it will be a disaster. The Wall in Jerusalem’s Abu-Dis neighborhood, in particular, doesn’t work and splits families. Frances (around 70; old-time Jerusalemite Arab): Everyone is stubborn and nothing will change. Temple Mount area is open to visitors (mainly tour groups) for a few hours a day (basically an open-air plaza to walk around surrounded by trees at the perimeter) but the shrines (Dome of the Rock and Al-Aqsa Mosque) are generally open only to Moslems at prayer, by order of the Israeli government which fears a Jewish attack which would create BIG problems. Al-Aqsa is a big mosque that looks like most other mosques but it is ornate toward the ceiling. No big deal on the inside considering its importance. Technically, Jews are forbidden under Jewish law to go to this area because it is so holy that one shouldn’t even step foot there. However, the rabbi who made this ruling has several times gone there himself as did the current prime minister, and it is my guess that the ruling was meant to avoid confrontations with Arabs more so than deal with matters of Jewish law. I have always been bothered by this and have preferred that Jews give up sovereignty but open these holy places (currently closed also to Christians -- and boy was my elderly Christian Arab Jerusalemite friend insulted when they asked him his religion and then told him it was closed to him) to all rather than be sovereigns and have these places closed for years. The Moslems were used to selling tickets to these shrines and have been denied this source of income, and I suppose they would prefer to reopen them if they had a choice in the matter. What I am told is that under the current situation (heightened tension and a pending disengagement in Gaza and discussion of final status issues), there is no chance at changing the status quo and creating a possibility of upsetting everything until the whole political situation quiets down. Not even putting 1,000 soldiers on the Mount to make sure some nut doesn’t bring in a bomb which, of course, would be wasteful but would effectively assert sovereignty. No pictures available of this visit because my camera broke at the security check – I am quite happy about it. To me it is a sign that there is a God who is actively watching over us especially since I figured in advance that he might cause it to break if he wanted to express his opinion about this matter. (I happened to speak with a prominent rabbi from Yeshiva University who felt exactly as I did about this and admitted that he has also been there.) Visit with Frances to the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. This is an unusual site worth seeing; he was a tour guide and I’ve never seen this before. It is a cave that is holy to several Christian denominations and where they believe Jesus was crucified and buried. Beneath the surface (ha ha) the various denominations fight each other over what goes on in that cave. But for the tourist it is pretty cool with all these little monuments in a cave with very old artifacts and mosaics and it is different from the usual stuff. Israel makes for good tourism; there is stuff to see here but they really have to sort out the Temple Mount because it is a crime for tourists to come here and not be able to see the really important sites if they want to. This kind of nonsense does not happen elsewhere in the world.

OK, let’s move to discussions. Oded: The 2000 Intifada was the last real war. 1967 War was a 6-day affair and nobody had a chance to digest it before it was over. The 1988 Intifadah was a game of rocks. Here, it was a real war of several years and the Israelis were brutal and effectively quelled aspirations of terror and violence with great electronic and human intelligence helped by squealing Palestinians. The Palestinians realize they made a big mistake and will never make such an Intifadah again. Israeli Arabs love the Wall to keep out the riff-raff who stole cars and raped girls. Sharon asked them 10 years ago which state they wanted to be part of and they were shocked at being asked. They don’t want to be part of Palestine. Israeli Arabs were boycotted by Jews after siding with the Palestinians during the last Intifadah; Jews went elsewhere for their Saturday shopping and hummus. They now are making it clear with their hearts and pocketbooks that they want integration into the Jewish state and realize they have to regain confidence from Jews. Proof of the pudding is that 288 of the 300 blockades along the Green Line are gone. [IC: This is not as much a matter of the Arabs’ distaste for violence as it is a vindication of the Wall which is highly effective. I drove past parts of it and it is clearly no-nonsense and it looks every bit like an international border. A bit sad in Abu-Dis, a suburb of Jerusalem, but when I asked why they divide a neighborhood, the answer was that they were shooting from that side, so the wall went there.] Gaza pullout will be more than a show but it will happen because not only the Arabs see that Sharon is ruthless – he has no patience for troublemakers of any kind and the Jews don’t want to be the victim of his tactics either. Israel’s plan is to get out of Gaza and build the Wall and goodbye. No treaties or deals. Clans will rule the Arab areas. The PLO and Hamas are umbrella fronts for various clans anyway in practice.  Americans will pressure the Palestinians to get their act together; Hamas will enter politics and have to deal with the social issues from inside government (not an enviable position and a bit of a trap for them); Hizbullah in Lebanon has no support and will get few votes in the next election. They have no reason to exist, now that Israel is out of Lebanon and so they must get with the political system if they want to continue.  Their recent moves against Israel were an attempt to play for space in Lebanon and the Israelis wisely didn’t take the bait.  Sunnis will rule Syria, Jordan and the Gulf; Shiites in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran. Iran, via Iraq, sees a way out of its theocracy to a secular shiite alternative. Either US or Israel will take out Iran if there is no revolution from inside. Assad has no future and won’t get the Golan either. America is THE power. Iraq war changed everything. Sunni defense minister in Iraq will, after the Americans pull out in 2006, butcher the Sunni terrorists because, as a Sunni, he can get away with it. The Sunni terrorists will get with the program as they know what’s coming. Mubarak thinks he is God (that he will never die) and told his son to sit in the corner and wait. Son has no support in the army and Suleiman is not prime minister material. Must change constitution in Egypt or there will be a big problem. Overall, a balance of power between Shiite and Sunni states is not a problem and we should warm up to the idea. 2005 was a good year for the Israeli economy; a miracle considering only 4 years from the fallout in the end of 2000. Bibi is a good finance minister; Fisher a good appointment as head of the Bank of Israel. Will privatize economy, give back Gaza to please the world, and then do anything we want underneath and nobody will object. The Arab countries want the Palestinian issue to disappear and this is a figleaf for it to do so. Abbas still talks of 1948 issues – since he and his Palestinian constituency don’t want to deal with reality, there cannot be real peace. Arafat signed Oslo and got some land while Israel got money and arms – more than they need. The loan guarantees aren’t being used and there are tons of airplanes sitting around. The Arabs should forget about olive trees and ask for things that are important. It’s not about land or ideology today – it’s about making money.

Drive to Tel Aviv with Israeli Arab through Abu Dis and other areas along the seam line. People renting apartments on the Israeli side of Abu Dis because the Wall is a one-way street (you can go from West to East and back, but you can’t go from East to West). Israeli Arab kids in Beit Hanninah (a mile from the Wall in East Jerusalem) don’t learn Hebrew or even know what the wall is. Parents don’t want their children to be poisoned, especially since they hope it will change in a few years. Avi (Tel Aviv solo practice lawyer): Still likes East Europe for business. Even with a good accountant, still pays over 50% in taxes. Nets about 70k a year for a lawyer running his own practice for 15 years. Still tough to make a living here, even at the top and working past midnight. Somewhat optimistic. After 25 years, I finally was in the area this evening and went to Shaul’s Inn Restaurant – a huge disappointment; they went glatt-kosher and the food is awful. I sent back my steak inedible. Adi: Also optimistic. Cannot go back but sees it as a 10 year gradual thing but take care not to let the Arabs lose all hope. Hard to find a business here. 

Tuesday morning visit to Palmach Museum in Tel Aviv, near Tel Aviv University. Same new-wave technique as the Begin Center. Very moving experience as you follow the lives of 10 recruits into this paramilitary organization in the 1940's that was a prime forerunner of the Israeli Army. This is something everyone should see, even if they have no love for Israel, because it gives good insight into the psyche of the Israeli Story. The various organizations all have their own museums now, and I suppose that one day Hamas, Al Aqsa Brigades and the rest will all have their own museums. The challenge for the Palestinians is to do what the Jews did – at some point turn from a bunch of factions doing their own thing to joining together to build a state. Interestingly, the Palmach was only about 7,000 soldiers and they made life miserable for the British. It was only 200-300 Hizbullah fighters who made the Israelis turn tail in Lebanon and there aren’t more than 2,000 Hamasniks right now in the Territories. Frances noted an Arabic adage that 1 foolish troublemaker can create problems that 1,000 wise men cannot figure out how to solve.

70 Minute taxi ride early afternoon to Afula to meet Mohammed, a judge with the Shariah court in Nazareth. Such a judge is a defacto leader of the Muslim religious community and Mohammed, British-educated lawyer, is enjoying his opportunity to try and make a difference where it counts. Roads are very good. ATM’s take American ATM cards now pretty much everywhere (used to be only certain banks). Worries about fundamentalists and backlash with US efforts to undermine democratic elections in places such as Egypt if such parties win. Is happy that Egyptian judges showed they will not be patsies for Mubarak’s rigged election scheme. Turkey’s Erdogan shows the fears of Moslem parties are exaggerated.  Saudis were clever with Al Quaida; offered a real amnesty and then, with the license provided by their magnanimity, proceeded to kill whoever didn’t take it. Abdullah of Jordan is weak; Assad is limping.  Agrees with Oded on most things but thinks Assad did not kill Hariri. Arabs still feel 2nd class (ie: Jews opposing Gaza pullout closed down roads this week but didn’t get shot like the Arabs did 4 years ago – the demonstrations may have been choreographed but the average Arab doesn’t know that) but his family is choosing to side with Israel economically. Sees brisk trade with Jordan and feels it will be immune to Intifadas. Nazareth offers good opportunities too, he feels. Nobody I talk to here seems to know much about Mubarak’s son but everyone is OK with the father. Hamas and Hizbullah will play ball. Agrees that Arabs know Sharon crushed the Intifada. Don’t be fooled by the nice looking Arab houses you see on the way to Afula (ie: Umm al Fahoom). They are empty on the inside and lack basic necessities; the towns lack decent hospitals and schools (and I noticed that yesterday’s driver’s 11 year old kid and none of his younger siblings didn’t know any Hebrew, which is unbelievable for an Israeli Arab kid living in Jerusalem). Bernard (by now we are at Kiryat Shmona up at the northern border): Hopes for good and thinks it will work out. Would go to Dubai to work and doesn’t care what land the Israelis give away as long as there is peace. (By the way, shortly after I left, it was announced that the Israeli foreign ministry opened a mission in Dubai. Readers of Global Thoughts will recall that last month I said I expected this soon.) Almost didn’t get on the Arkia flight back to Tel Aviv for dinner because I was traveling without my passport for this domestic flight and arrived 15 minutes before departure. Arkia has discontinued service to Kiryat Shmona (only flies from Rosh Pina) and only flies early morning, mid-afternoon and evening.

You can draw a conclusion from this trip that Israelis don’t really care if there is a formal peace; an absence of war is good enough. The final status issues are too emotional for the various people to deal with, and it is understood that you can’t have a full peace without resolving them. Better perhaps not to deal with them.

Gilead (back in Tel Aviv for a late dinner): Likud will win any election for the next 10 years. Is worried that August pullout should be OK but that if it goes well, the future will be OK. Arie: Don’t make peace with Syria and let Assad fall. If Israel makes peace with him, it will guarantee his continued rule because America will have to prop him up as part of the deal. Iran is a potential problem – he wouldn’t say what Israel might do, basically because he is in a position to know what Israel is planning to do about it, and presumably something is in the thinking-about-it stage. Likes what Sharon is doing; agrees with Oded that the Arabs feel crushed. Worries they will rise again if either Bibi or Barak return to power. Sharon uses carrots and sticks well and understands better than his predecessors that Israel must reward its friends in the region (and is very angry that the Israelis did not do so with regard to the South Lebanese). Israelis should put 1,000 police on the Temple Mount, administer that site with an iron fist and open it to all and not give up the raison d’etre of the Jewish state. Israel will always live by the sword; no full peace needed or possible and no treaties needed. Just a long ceasefire and make sure that Sharon does as much as possible over the next 5 years to create as many facts as possible so that there is less for his successors to screw up. Hopefully no Bibi or Barak to follow; watch Halutz, the next chief of staff who has both military and business experience. Corruption is increasing at a slower rate than before but it is still there. It will get worse under either Bibi or Barak. Tax decreases are a sham as fees and customs duties go up or VAT goes up and then down a bit. An LCD TV still costs 3x as much here as in the US. Health and employment taxes high; even with a good accountant you still pay 50% income tax and then all the other fees and taxes (health insurance, VAT of 17%). Plans in the offing to allow for home interest mortgage deduction which would increase real estate prices. As to Jordan, do business with them but don’t talk about it too much. Big mistake to let Mubarak put troops in Rafiah on the border; Hosni will never attack Israel but his successor might and this is a foot in the door. Believes the old guard in Syria killed Hariri but Bashar pays the price. No real private education exists yet, but money is there to pay for it and the market needs to be educated about it; public education is getting worse and is borderline useless with students taking after-school supplemental education. It’s about 2am now and after a 6 hour break we begin again with Ayal who hopes everything will be OK followed by Jonathan: We won the war against the Arabs. Assad IS that stupid. Let him fall. The Americans will have some kind of military adventure in Iraq that spills into Syria and, after drawing in his army, will decimate it leaving him humiliated and ripe for overthrow. Mubarak’s son was well-respected as an investment banker at Bank of America. Showed up on time for meetings and didn’t look for honor as the president’s son. Is he a leader? I dunno. Iraq is moving in America’s favor; Iran is an open question. Bibi a total failure as finance minister. Ariel being named as a university is a meaningless gesture since it won’t take effect for 10 years but was mainly designed to piss away at the British university union which was boycotting Israel. (That boycott ultimately backfired and was rescinded this week; the original vote was scheduled over Passover when they knew the Jews wouldn’t be around and was tabled in the middle of the night – not exactly a ‘democratic’ move. Meanwhile, the Union supports Cuban Solidarity, a pro-Castro university movement.)  Barak is finished. No new leaders on horizon. Sharon is personalizing politics away from Likud; could form a centrist party and win. Next 5-10 years it will be right-wing oriented governments. Peres is finished. Don’t leave Arabs to cantonization – Israel must deal with the situation to avoid having them all around and unstable with a failed economy. Israeli Arabs also like the Wall but will have a problem if there is chaos with their cousins 5 miles away. Not sure about Iran – doesn’t feel Israel could take them on. Ethiopian Taxi Driver: All Arabs hate us and you can’t deal with them. If you do your army and university, you can be equal in Israel. He is here 18 years, so is not typical of the new immigrant who is usually to the right of Atilla the Hun. 

Shmuel: Unhappy with withdrawal without a referendum. No to Mofaz or Barak. Nobody he’s met thinks Barak is viable. Halutz might be interesting. Over the next 10-15 years, lots of right-wing National Religious Party oriented career officers will be in government and it will affect policy. Lots of the officer corp who used to be left-wing kibbutzniks are now in these positions. Bibi has good policies but he also created lots of poverty as a ruthless finance minister with huge budget cuts. Sharon will move forward after disengagement because he can’t sit still and do nothing. Thinks Assad knocked off Hariri and doesn’t have anything on Mubarak’s son. Wall works. Arabs feel down and out. No idea who would take over for Sharon. No way Israel will go after Iran – they are armed to the teeth and can retaliate (and Shmuel is in a good position to know exactly what Iran can do). Al-Aqsa is such a hot potato he prefers to keep status quo for now, even if it is closed.

Ben Gurion airport departure. Long line at check-in even for business class. The airport is similar to Montreal’s Dorval. Nice public restrooms and business lounges (but cold burekas?). It’s still Israel – they serve soup and have those little Osem croutons you can put into it. 25 flights departing between 4pm and midnight – contrast that with Bombay which had only 3 flights the whole period between 10am and 8pm. Duty free liquor is half the city price. No Max Brenner chocolates at Ben Gurion – Elite seems to have the monopoly here and Max Brenner is the newest chocolate fad sold mainly in its stores in Tel Aviv. Only 3 lanes stopping incoming traffic for security checks and lots of driving around once you get onto the airport property. Lufthansa has a 747 going to Frankfurt and 2 flights a day. They fly an Airbus 300 to Amman and Larnaca more empty than full; the 747 is sold out in all 3 classes on a typical Wednesday afternoon, with the majority making connections. Flight to Frankfurt is close to 4 hours; good food and a 747 is a nice plane. Entertainment screens are tiny and seats are older equipment; they have a first class cabin upstairs.

Some Ivan Thoughts, based on the recent trips to Amman, Dubai and now Israel:

1. It is now clear that Israel and the Emirates are going to have commercial relations sooner than later.

2. The Israelis are confident that things are going their way. They are coming out of the house and onto the streets and they believe they have beaten the Arabs at their own game. The Wall is serious business and the Arabs themselves admit that the last 4 years of Intifada were a disaster from which they may never recover. Israeli Arabs realize they must make a choice or carry a suspect title, and they have cast their lots with the Jewish State.

3. Sharon carries a consensus to move forward with the Gaza disengagement, not because it is a concession but because it is to Israel’s convenience. This is viewed as such on all sides. The Arabs are not expected to go whoop-de-doo with Gaza but they are expected to get their house in order so that more things can be done later. I believe that Sharon will try to move forward with them if they want to because he will not want to leave open issues for the next prime minister to deal with if he thinks his successor will be Bibi who can be counted upon to screw things up. I think Barak has a good PR person but no support in the country.

4. Israel hopes that Iran and Syria will implode and would rather not interfere with those countries because interference could prolong the agony of having such regimes exist. There is no interest in dealing with Syria for the moment. Israel probably has plans to deal with Iran because it thinks it could successfully strike; but there are credible reasons to fear the retaliation that could come from such an attack. My sense is that Israel will, at least for the next few years, sit it out. The Egyptians play footsie with the NPT treaty but are scared to death of Iran getting the bomb as it will force them into the arms race.

5. Based on my investigation of the Hariri matter in several countries over the past 3 months, I reject the logical view that the deed went against Assad’s style and that he couldn’t have been such an idiot and instead conclude that Assad’s handlers arranged it and that they did not necessarily mind when planning it that Assad was the obvious culprit, although the deed backfired and they probably regret it.

6. A ceasefire that lasts forever is more likely than a full peace that nobody can agree to.

7. Sharon has a definite strategy, a main point of which is to keep everyone guessing and off-balance. He is a great politician and is rather ruthless, which is making it possible both to deal with the Arabs and to cause Jews to fall into line, whether or not they like him or agree with him. The Gaza disengagement will happen whenever he wants it to, and the opposition will try and cut the best deal they can and then mount token resistance.

8. Palestinians will be ruled by clans and eventually decide if they want to get their act together and make a state. In the meantime, the Israelis can pull back from Gaza, build their wall and wait for them to come around. Abbas in his heart still yearns to turn the clock back to 1948 but he knows he can’t and his intentions to deal with the Israelis are real. Abbas wouldn’t last 5 minutes but for the fact that the Palestinians want him to deal with Israel and see that the Israelis and Americans take him seriously. The problem is that he is also trying to coopt Hamas and it is not clear whether Hamas intends to eat him for lunch after the Israelis withdraw from Gaza. My guess is that Hamas will get with the program, in part because Arabs in Jordan told me they are not funding Hamas anymore unless they get with the program and because the Arab street wants to get a life and wants Abbas to deal with the Israelis. Hizbullah in Lebanon also will be under great pressure to play ball. What this means to Israel (and it is already happening), the US and Britain, is that everyone has to start dealing with Hamas and Hizbullah as political parties that are part of their political systems. I have said for over a year now that this is not a bad idea, because Hamas clearly has the support of people in the streets who don’t see them as corrupt.

9. Mubarak is creating a problem in Egypt. He is all right but is not helping the future by acting as if he will never die. Everyone has to leave the stage at some point but Egypt has no system in place to set a succession in motion. By rigging the system and with America’s support, he is making it more likely that radicalized Islamic parties will have a bigger say in Egypt’s future instead of being worked into the system. Over all, Al Quaida is losing momentum (Bin Laden’s name doesn’t even come up in conversation these days) and the Americans are doing rather well in the Middle East despite their unpopularity with the masses. The Iraq war has changed things and the momentum in Iraq is moving the Americans’ way. Perhaps all the Jihadis are being magnetized toward Iraq and the war of civilizations is taking place there instead of in New York? (Or maybe it is more likely that we are just very lucky and that like God breaks my camera at the entrance to the Temple Mount, he is watching over us and keeping us safe.) A balance of power between Shiite and Sunni regimes in the Levant and Gulf is not a bad thing and seems to be where things are going. American troops are on the ground all over the region and this counts for something.

10. Israel is looking up. The economy is improving, the streets are being taken back as the fear of terror subsides, and people are beginning again to talk about the future but with a certain consensus rather than the 50/50 split about old issues that were stagnant for 30 years. For the past few years it was simple – we’re under attack and there’s nothing to talk about. Now, it’s about getting out of Gaza and, by the way, we have all these domestic issues to deal with. The finance ministry is changing the way the country deals with issues such as welfare and poverty (and basically the poor are getting poorer and the richer are getting richer, and it is amazing that the underclass doesn’t punish the Likud for it). Families still have 10 children and the husband sitting in seminary and not working. The new family allowances mean that you don’t get a bonus for having more kids but you still get paid enough for having kids that it doesn’t pay to work. There is no sense that there will be anyone but Sharon as prime minister for the foreseeable future. If something happens to him, it will be a great shock for the country.  They see him as a unique and strong leader trying to do things for posterity and a better future in a country that has been waiting for years for someone of his stature to do it. Everybody feels that Sharon’s Yes is a Yes and a No is a No, and this counts for much with everyone in the region. Peres learned from his 1995 election gambit that referendums lose Arab negotiating partners who do not want to be humiliated if they make concessions and then have them voted down by Israeli voters, and so Peres has wisely backed Sharon. Yet, there is not yet enough confidence that things will be stable and quiet to induce major investment yet, and the country remains corrupt and hostile to business investment. Taxes are still high, bureaucracy is terrible, and things haven’t really changed even though the infrastructure (particularly roads and transportation) has improved. It takes 3 years to get zoning approval in Jerusalem, another 3 years to build because you can only use Jerusalem stone. These stark choices offer lots of venues for corruption. In the 7 years it takes to design and build a building, you could have 2 intifadas and of course want expediting of your plans. A shopkeeper paying $100 per month rent in downtown Jerusalem has no incentive to make downtown work. If you worked for 15 years as a solo lawyer and your take-home is 70k per year working past midnight, what’s the point of spending your life here? Your LCD TV costs 3k here; your car is also double that of the States and gas is $4 a gallon. There are 3 people trying to sell you the same plot of land and the lawyer is just as shady as the client he introduces to you. The same building I saw in 1995 a block away from the Tel Aviv seashore is still a slum, even though it should be prime real estate a block away from the Opera Tower. Tel Aviv still looks like a slum from the top of the Sheraton. Tel Aviv needs a huge fire to wipe out everything so they could start from scratch. All in all, a nice place to visit but not yet a place you want to live in if you have a better choice available. If Sheikh Mohammed from Dubai were running the place, we’d all want to be there in a second.
 

GERMANY – Frankfurterhof Hotel is the flagship of the Steigenberger chain, right in the heart of Frankfurt. Easy ride to town from airport. You can ride for free on the subways and airport train to Frankfurt (as long as you don’t get caught). Room 216 is a nice junior suite with lots of light and lots of room. 300 Euro with breakfast on the Amex Platinum program (sometimes their rates are lower than the listed rates or they are the same but it pays with the various freebies you get through them such as guaranteed upgrade, breakfast, high tea and 4pm checkout). I’m only 1 person but the room was for 2 so I invited guests for breakfast and tea. Finally a hotel with BBC World; the two Sheratons in Israel didn’t have it. There is a city hotel by Steigenberger near the Sheraton; this one is near Wily Brandt metro stop. Kempinski’s property is by the airport. Ate little pizzas with filo-dough and cold salad on top at Hauptwache café right in the middle of the pedestrian area by Kaufhof. Express elevator next to Kaufhof takes you to a rooftop vista and café at an adjoining shopping mall. Very good breakfast here. Villeroy & Boche has a store right by the hotel. The new design is called New Wave and we liked it a lot. Jewish Museum is a few minutes walk away but it is all in German unless you want to walk around with an English language densely-written catalogue. Walked around late night and in the morning in the many parks that ring the downtown area. Bring water; can be hard to find convenience stores. At lunchtime, there are lots of lines with people waiting to buy food. “Australia” is a cool café for ice cream and chocolates. Walked down the Zeil shopping street and went up the Mein Tower to see the very good observation deck. Frankfurt is a pretty city and many nice buildings have been built over the past 10 years. Zeil is festive to walk about during lunch hour – everything from people in hula skirts selling beer, teenagers demonstrating karate, minigolf, Spanish-style dancing, guy playing xylophone. Karstadt is a good store for household goods but clothes here don’t fit me and ties and jackets are really ugly. Maybe I didn’t find the right shopping areas. Lovely groceries. Prices here are still OK even with a high Euro. Trains are expensive (but still cheaper than Amtrak); second class is usually good enough. SwissRail is cheaper and Italian trains are much cheaper. The speed-train is pricey but fast; 62 Euro in 2nd class from Frankfurt to Dusseldorf, but the train goes 300 km/hour (roughly 160 mph) and you don’t feel a thing. Taxi in Frankfurt had a meter in his rearview mirror. Only cost 2 Euro to get into the taxi and 5 Euro to get to the train station. 

On the way to Dusseldorf, there is 20 minutes to transfer in Cologne. I spent 10 of them running with my bag to see the cathedral there which is a famous one and worth seeing from the outside. At Dusseldorf, there is a skytrain which goes from the railroad to the airport and it is suspended from the rails. Quietest airport I’ve ever seen; they are so quiet here. Dusseldorf is not as boring as I expected; has some interesting waterfront architecture. We continue to Aachen, a town of 250,000 near the Belgian border about an hour’s nice train ride from Dusseldorf and roughly the same distance from Cologne and Bonn. Not a bad place to live and not so cheap either. A dunam (quarter acre) with a 3,700 square foot house will still set you back 2 million Euro here although prices go down quickly as you move away from the city. Pretty city center with a nice cathedral, pastry shops and pretty neighborhoods with nice landscaping and architecture, parks and forests. People here don’t move and it’s hard to purchase property. 

It’s almost faster to take the train to Frankfurt than to fly because the flying lanes into Frankfurt are so congested, even on a Sunday morning. They are not great at helping you transfer flights in Frankfurt and my mother-in-law missed her connection coming in and nearly missed her return connection, even with a business class ticket. It’s not my favorite airport for connections. This airport needs a redo – all the shopping is before passport control; the lounges are far from the gates and incoming flights often require a bus to get to the terminal making it that much harder to transfer (and then there is nobody meeting the flights to offer transfer assistance). We didn’t even go to the business class lounge because we were afraid of missing our flight and the first class lounge wouldn’t allow my wife to even use their bathroom; she went right past the bouncer and used it anyway (and the guy started running after her). Not that there was food in the first class lounge anyway – you wonder what the point is these days. Germans are a mixture of smart and idiotic (this one was in the latter category); but it is a civilized place these days. Lovely landscapes from the trains. If only they didn’t have their history, it would be a country I could enjoy without any baggage attached. Germany does have a problem – it’s economy has a poor outlook, immigration is the key since it does not have its own internal population growth but whether or not Turks and Slavs will work in Germany is a good question, and Schroeder has so far not really delivered meaningful reforms.

Almost 8 hour flight to New York. Lufthansa is still phasing in their new equipment and flatbed seats. Still a lot of old equipment being used. Pretty empty flight; corporate beancounters are taking over. Nuts in plastic wrap just like in America and I wanted something other than my vege meal (ie: fish) and they made me wait an hour while the crew discussed whether or not I could have the other item and they waited for another passenger to sleep through the flight because they were so tight on food that they didn’t know if they needed it for him. Lufthansa is no longer one of the great airlines; I feel awful they are taking over Swiss. Frankly, except for the extra space, I don’t see the great benefit of flying business class these days. There’s no real food or extra entertainment (I don’t use it anyway); the equipment is more often than not outdated and they don’t charge you less if they don’t deliver on equipment; no special handling at the airport viz. security or getting on or off the plane or to a transfer flight; the lounges offer nothing except a place to sit which is nothing you can’t get anywhere; and the baggage doesn’t come out any faster (so it is not helpful unless you carry your own bag and use the first-off advantage to get through passport control faster). You are probably better off just buying 3 seats across in coach, bringing your own food, carrying your own bag and making sure to get off the plane as quickly as possible. The only place where business class still means something is in the Gulf with something like Emirates, Kuwait, Gulf or Qatar.

A couple of random thoughts:

Putin is going to pay for all the trouble he’s caused with Yukos; it was a bad move, politically and economically. His popularity is also down in Russia.

I’ve been waiting for some real numbers and now I have them. American Jews have contributed $30 million to tsunami relief; Saudis originally contributed $10 million and then upped to $30 million after international pressure. But their telethon for Palestinian martyrs came up with over $100 million. Always helps to have your priorities right.

These new digital cameras take great pictures but they break too easily. The Canon PowerShot SD 200 is a nice camera; compact and fast on the startup. Buy extended service warranties with any of these cameras.

Freakonomics is a new book published by two authors, Levitt & Dubner. It is a good read which uses economic principles to explain things happening in the world that don’t make sense. For instance, it convincingly argues that the reduction of the crime rate during the 1990's was the result of the legalization of abortion through Roe v. Wade, more so than anything else. It can be read by a teenager and I would suggest it be made required reading for Economics 101 students.

Intelligent Life is the name of the Economist’s new quarterly publication about lifestyle issues. It offers intelligent articles about travel, money management, style, etc. It just published its first issue available in the US this month and it is also sold in Europe.

Ate at Daniel, a top restaurant in New York. It is very good, but you can get just as good at the Ritz Carlton, Central Park South for about a third less the price. Sharper Image makes an eyeglass cleaner for about $40 that works well.

Good to see that SUV’s are finally taking a hit because it didn’t make sense that people were willing to keep buying the SUV’s when petrol has become so expensive. However, people are buying these more “fuel efficient” cars which really aren’t – the EPA tests are so off-base and unrealistic that they are off by as much as 35%.  For instance, they run the car on a treadmill without air conditioning without traffic or stuff in the trunk at a top speed of 60 mph. The EPA promises to make better tests next year.

Finally watched “Control Room” which is a good documentary about Al-Jazeera and an insight as to the stage-management of news about the Iraq War. In particular, the scene where the statue of Saddam was destroyed is reported to have been staged and the arguments on that point are convincing. I was expecting a bit more from the film overall, but it is certainly more factual than Fahrenheit 9/11.

Former senior officer at the NSA (National Security Agency) complains that Congressional interference in racial quotas and diversification has resulted in lower standards and forced retirements of highly qualified code-breakers, and worries that the country’s intelligence capability is not at its fullest capacity. An example of the overall impression that post-9/11 the US still has not really decided that it is serious about security. The New York Times reports this month that much of the expenditures right after 9/11 were wasted on equipment that didn’t work and that a new generation of spending is about to begin. I’m a bit curious to know how much of this equipment was Israeli and how much of the new stuff will be as well. The reason I’m curious is that I always hear how great their stuff is while it is in product development; I’d like to know if the reality (meaning product application) meets the hype and I’ve asked certain news organizations to put on some skeptical lenses and check this out.

We keep reading every day about how real estate valuations are too high. I’m sitting on my cash and hoping cash will be king when the bottom falls out of the market. It will be brutal with blood all over the floor when it happens.

Consider this: My business partner goes to synagogue daily and a fellow he used to sit with was a 59 year old vice president of the synagogue. One day last week he was in mid-sentence on a city bus with some lady and just dropped dead. Usually we all hear such stories about someone else. In this case, for my partner, it was a close friend and a bit of an epiphany. Next thing he knows he is a pall-bearer at his funeral and, in the case of this person, his other sibling is dead and his parents have now buried 2 kids. He himself never had children. So, for whatever all the above is worth, I can only tell you that I don’t sit around with a 30 year master plan. I take my holidays, enjoy each trip as if it were my last one, and try to be happy if I can get up in the morning, move my bowels and find some reason to make each day a good one.

Life has no guarantees and my global travels tells me that most of my friends agree with these ideas and thinks the same way – goals are sometimes achieved when you don’t try to hard to get stressed out by them, and that people need to be trusted even if their governments cannot be. Whether the goal is getting your family in order or solving the problems of the Middle East, there are lessons to be learned here. The hope for the Middle East is that right now the people of the region want things to work out, whether it be in Israel, Iraq, Lebanon or Iran. We must try and remember that people, left to their own devices, want the same things all over and I am encouraged by my travels that things are moving in the right direction and that people all over are generally optimistic, some more cautious than others, but most see things moving on an uptick. I remain optimistic and, if that fails, I also believe that God is watching and wants the world to work.