by Oded Yinon, military analyst, Jerusalem -- 1 September 1999  

First it involves an organizational change unprecedented since the fifties in the military organization which takes 8% of Israel GDP each year nine billion usd.[36 bill.NIS in 1999].The new military already today is finally organized into three arms: land forces command, naval command, and finally, the smallest but the most modern arm, and the most powerful in the region and the best equipped by the US so far -- the airforce command, all under the older GHQ existing since 1948.Only in 1952 and in 1983 did the I.D.F made such major changes in what is basically a very conservative organization in its nature since its inception in 1948.Together with this major change the I.D.F also in recent years have included some three new branches within the GHQ organization and one new field command like the new Home Command to deal with missile threats on the home front since the Gulf war of 1991.This command sends the rescue missions recently to Turkey and last year to Nairobi. A new Logistics and Technological branch was set up within the older GHQ years ago also. A new operations branch had been set up recently separate from the very powerful GHQ branch. Now the G.H.Q has about six branches logistics ATAL personal AKA intelligence AMAN planning AGAT which was organized in 1980 under then General and present day Premier Ehud Barak later also C.O.S. I.D.F. and operations AMAZ and GHQ branch AGAM. All other organizational changes have been really minor. 

All of these changes happened since the Gulf war in 1991 mostly since that war showed how Israel is wide open and basically undefended to any strategic missile attacks with no defense and very short range offensive capabilities. This tended to change IDF perception of the threats facing Israel since 1991 Today the IDF is much better organized and prepared for such major strategic mostly missile threats of all kinds. With the new missile threats since that last war and the changes technologically and in organization it entailed came also change of perceptions of the major threats facing the nation in the new millennium after 2000.All these very complicated very innovative changing circumstances can be described as the Big Three Triads of the new Israeli armed forces IDF for the new millennium and new century the 21^st. 

The first Triad or triangle is the one already described the new organized three arms organization of the military under the older GHQ: land forces..navy and airforce commands with the new additions in its own GHQ organization. The addition of three new branches in it since 1980.This just the first major Triad been discussed so far but it is only an organization matter. The second Triad as we shall see is much more deeply thought out and discussed within the leading military and civilian defense circles since the last war of 1991. The change of perception of the major threats facing the IDF in the new millennium. The first of the three threats is the combined threat of either conventional armored thrust into Israel from all fronts and all sides by all potential enemies Egypt Jordan Iraq Syria Lebanon relying on their great massive land forces wholly armored and mechanized like in all past wars. 

Another threat more conventional and threatening more to the individual Israeli made worse by the aftermath of the Oslo accords is the threats of conventional terrorism mainly by Islamic groups Hizbullah and mainly Hamas in the territories set up since the 1982 war in Lebanon and the Palestinian uprising of 1988-1992.This second threat is not a whole out threat like the former one Israel experienced and dealt with usually successfully except in 1973 war many time since the 1948 war but is very bad for morale and the success of any peace process. The bloody results of both organizations onslaught of terrorism on Israel since Oslo which took the lives of 315 Israelis is a test to the power of Terrorism and the needs of Israel to face it seriously. It mostly failed in that endeavor until today. 

This means that the third threat is the new one discussed earlier: the missile threats and the unconventional threats looming since the last war of 1991.These threats with all kinds of missiles around Israel about 1,300 at the most all armed with present day conventional heads can turn also to non conventional heads in the next millennium. The first conventional threat of a massive onslaught by armored forces from the Arab world for which Israel has such a huge land force in reserves mostly armored - about 12 armored divisions THAT IS NOT WHAT'S WORRYING TO THE ISRAELI CHIEFS OF STAFF neither is the second threat of conventional terrorism for which Israeli army and police founded dozens of special forces to deal with. It is the last threat in these Triad of threats that which takes most of the time and attention and the planning and the resources of the IDF since 1991. 

This is what leads us straight to the last and the most important change or the last Triad. The Triad of the technological answers developed by Israel together with the US with its huge financial backing to deal with the unconventional threats of missiles of all kinds from all around Israel from countries like Afghanistan Iran Iraq Syria Egypt Libya Pakistan Saudi Arabia Muslim Republics in Central Asia like Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine, etc. in the next millennium. The new threat therefore changed the whole perception of the IDF look at modern wars since 1991.This last threat out of the three conventional warfare conventional terrorism and non conventional warfare is the main doctrine change in IDF strategy since David Ben Gurion days but this does not change the basic characteristics of that doctrine: major swift air and armored offensive deep within enemy space pushing the enemy into its own backyard and the speed of warfare and wining the war in a short time -- all of that has not changed since IDF was founded in 1948. 

The last Triad is the technological and sophisticated answers Israel is preparing for those unconventional threats of all kinds from all various of its enemies in this region it includes therefore various arms weapons technologies of conventional and also non conventional answers to the last threats and is also built in three parts like all former Triads. It includes supersonic fast state of the art modern hi tech equipped aircraft like new F 16-I sent to Israel since the Gulf war 1991 mainly since Oslo 1994 and now until 2008 by the US The overall cost of these 300-400 combat planes since 1991 is about 9.5 bill.usd besides dozens of other non combat planes and combat choppers Newly developed and older Israeli developed missiles against missiles developed now mainly by Israel and the US like the ARROW and the MOAV systems as part of the huge Wall or Homa project coasting about eight bill.usd at least mostly US financed and last and not least modern state of the art Dolphin class submarine launched missiles of the Poppy V class A whole new Israeli German US enterprise based on the new three Dolphin class Submarines built since 1991 by Germany that will send them to Israel until 2003. 

These three new conceptions organizational changes new order of threats and mainly new technologies will restructuring of the whole Israeli military in the next decades and even more. Superior technology available to almost all citizens here and all hi tech so developed here in so many sectors and many people advanced and ready to use such new technology gives Israel quite an edge vis a vis all foes in achieving its new technological advantage in the new decades and century ahead. Israel has all the young and experienced and highly motivated youth in service now to achieve these aims. No other nation on earth has the potential to do such a change in its military technology and doctrine maybe besides the US which anyway supply Israel with all the ingredients of such change technology weapons and money for all of that. The amount of US aid since 1973 mainly since 1991 are staggering really and the huge amount of direct investments mainly from the US in Israel hi tech industry 2-3 bill.usd per year in the 90's explain why and how Israel can so easily develop its new doctrine new winning technology and power in the region. 

Peace in the region is the main fruit of such capabilities on part of Israel today nothing else explains it really. PM Rabin and PM Barak are simply the right men for the job of turning Israel to the main power in the Middle East a player in world stage so peaceful strong for a long time. The next millennium will be even better than the former one for the Jews Israel as a state. The new strategic outlook is changing too since the 1991 Gulf war since less enemies exist on Israel borders than ever before Iraq is destroyed in strategic military terms basically since that war and Syria has only obsolete weapons from Russia 80's vintage if not 70's though its armored force is quite formidable still. Iran is therefore the new foe but 2,000 KM away. and it has its share of domestic unrest maybe a whole revolution on hand soon Egypt seems to be possessing a new conventional threat on land sea and mainly its new US armed airforce since peace was signed because of its new state of the art sophisticated armory planes and tanks ships too given to it by the US since peace was signed in 1979 Besides that the rest of past and present foes do not represent any real danger in the short term. The Palestinians are surrounded in their many disconnected enclaves in their territories Gaza apart from the West Bank which is also divided and sliced up since OSLO II to so many small parts and the strong IDF enjoys paramount superiority in all terms vis a vis their military strength miniature at most today 1999. 

So the new Israeli strategy since the Gulf war at 1991 takes into account these various changes for the better. Since Barak days as C.O.S. of the I.D.F. with the late PM and also former C.O.S. Rabin he has steered a whole out change in tactics and strategies if at all war come in its regular conventional form. Israel will not take anymore territories in battle as it did in former wars It can control or rule any hostile Arab Muslim population as the Intifada showed in 1988-92 It will seek just to destroy all enemy forces wherever they are and will destroy infrastructure all around those countries that will attack it like what its airforce did late June 99 in Lebanon or in former operations in May 1996 there and July 1993 in Lebanon Barak and Rabin headed that last operation. Israel will utilize its most modern arm the airforce against any enemy at any depths all over the region since its enjoys complete uncontested superiority except Egypt modern Americanized large airforce in the whole region this total supremacy was given to it by the US and its supplied modern aircrafts since Camp David Accords mainly since 1977. Hundreds of planes will deal with any air or ground threat and mainly incoming missiles and their batteries no land forces needed for that and no casualties like the war against Serbia in Kosovo in early 1999. 

Barak sees that war as an example for a low risk low casualty air campaign against any enemy around Israel. Missiles will do what the airforce can not do or risk-pilots-or even better laser beams and mainly unmanned satellites using lasers and most important unmanned low flying drones made by Israel alone. Peace than is just a camouflage to give Israel precious time this passing decade since between Rabin era to Barak era 1993-2003 to arm itself for the next millennium in the most modern state of the art weaponry supplied free by the US mainly and new strategy and new tactics that will keep its supremacy. 

Rabin and Barak both military man think therefore about peace only in military terms and the results of their policy will shape in the next millennium only. Peace with Egypt under Begin gave Israel precious twenty years to prepare for any event with that strong power and peace with Syria will do the same in northern front a much closer to Israel than Egypt 300 KM away with Sinai as a huge buffer zone. Jordan never a strong threat anyway and the Palestinians in enclaves all over the territories. The new foundation of Israel military strength are therefore missiles of all types air land sea and far above and long range too hi tech systems of all kinds computers systems of high caliber many aircraft and highly capable trained pilots and new missile ships from the US together with smaller ones made here with sophisticated missiles in all ranges at sea and against subs and planes and new submarines with missiles of short and long range conventional and even maybe unconventional capabilities a second strike capability that is. 

Israel therefore since Barak days as C.O.S. is working fast but surely on long strike capabilities in air and at sea to both deter and if needed also to hit any target from Afghanistan to Algeria far away Yemen or the Arab sea- Iran mainly. Its Triad of missiles of all kinds huge ready strong airforce and anti-missile missiles systems of all variations and types are all aimed at all of these conventional threats as well as non conventional mainly nuclear threats chemical and biological threats that can be dealt with even today very simply. All Israelis will be inoculated soon against any known germ biological warfare and all Israelis are already since 1990 supplied with gas mask of all types against any chemical agents. Israel has on the ground all the tanks it needs to take out any enemy tank and all anti tank missiles or system to destroy such forces, it has all kinds of missiles on the ground at sea and in the air to block and kill any incoming missiles or attacks by aircraft, its naval and sea missiles are world renown already too. 

The joint American Israeli program called the Wall or Homa in Hebrew is the main obstacle to any attack from far away with missiles against its population system. The first of these three anti missile batteries the Arrow will be in place soon costing 300 mill.usd each like one huge German made submarine Israel will receive or double the price of one sophisticated F15-I Israel is receiving since 1998. Such an Arrow missile has the success rate of 99% its makers say as says IDF chief or arms development program General Yitzhak Ben Israel It has no other alternative on earth as successful. The US made Thud missile has failed so far so the US will rely on the Arrow too. 

Other system is called Moav and its uniqueness is in hitting enemy missile emplacement once the missile leaves the country of origin which is an amazing development of the first magnitude. Another system the Nautilus will destroy all Katyusha rockets hitting Israel from Hizbullah bases in Lebanon. All these three systems the Arrow called Hetz in Hebrew the Moav the Nautilus are all joint projects with the US mostly financed by them as all former missiles development programs here since 1973 war. The famous Jericho I and Jericho II and maybe now Jericho III long range missiles carrying unconventional weaponry at long ranges are all Israeli development since the 60's with some French help. The sea based Gabriel missiles and Harpoon missiles as new Poppy missiles are the main arm of the newly built navy so successful in the 1973 war. All other systems are made by Israel including hi tech technology electronic warfare means and now even intelligence and communication satellites for military means like Ofek 2 and Ofek 3 Ofek 4 has landed at sea a failure so far. The new civilian satellite Amos is also geared for strategic needs. 

Still Israel with all of its capabilities made at home or in the US relies a lot on the US as the final arbiter of its existence on Nov.1 1998 it signed an agreement with the US under which the US will guarantee Israel space and land from any non conventional missile attack if it materialize Actually the US given Israel a nuclear umbrella of its own like NATO or Japan and above and beyond all of its own capabilities. Israel in the last emergency in the Gulf in February 1998 before the crisis of Dec.1998 relied very much on immediate satellite and other resources of the US to alleviate fears here from incoming Iraqi chemical attack like earlier in the war of 1991 when US batteries satellites and AWACS defended Israel when 39 missiles hit. Israel simply does not trust itself alone in any future war - the US is here to protect it also.