Karen is upset with me. Being pregnant, she wants the monopoly on ailments. But no matter how many ailments she has, I have even more. We were supposed to go on a really great trip to Europe this month but, after whittling down destinations one by one and my visit to Europe this month, we finally decided to just stick to domestic locales for the duration and you can read about them next month as we start our holiday this Friday. The notes of my preview trip to the Lake Geneva area earlier this month are posted to the site (and information on this region isn’t easy to come by) and Evian, France was a pleasant surprise. Montreux, Switzerland was disappointing but it remains on the list for the future due to the existence of the “chocolate train” that takes you on a 8 hour expedition of local countryside, a cheese and a chocolate factory in an old-fashioned pullman train spruced up to first-class standards.

Thoughts as we approach summer’s end:

Hurricane Katrina wouldn’t have been such a disaster if the areas hit weren’t filled with black people. Louisiana and Mississippi are some of the poorest areas of the country and they have been neglected for lack of a tax base even though people have known for 25 years that this was a problem waiting to happen. Images of black people being guarded by white troops pointing guns at them while people and doing nothing to help while people died in front of them will be passed along for a generation, if what the BBC reporter on the scene said is correct. Nevertheless, there isn’t going to be a gasoline shortage in America and prices are not going to go to $100 a barrel. The effect on the American economy is likely to be minor and temporary. New Orleans will and must rebuild its tourism infrastructure because it is vital to the employment of people in the region. This week the 1,200 member Association of Pet Trainers had to find a new home for its convention – just think of all the others. The hurricane might be a good excuse to bring some troops back from Iraq if we are looking for a face-saving reason to get them back.

Global Thoughts was on target as to the Gaza withdrawal. The operation went faster than expected, the demonstrations were almost entirely choreographed with the exception of 3 rabble-rousing rabbis in one settlement who will be duly punished, and few people crossed red lines and got hurt. For all those who want to know why the army went with kid gloves in the area with Jews, the answer is simple: the confrontation was staged for television and nobody was intending to hurt anyone else. Watching the BBC it was pretty funny at some points – the BBC correspondent would say “Here’s a scuffle breaking out...let’s have a look...” and then 20 cameramen would all huddle around watching this one teenager arguing with and pushing a soldier and then translate from French for some lady calling them invaders. Notice now that the government is moving to restore forfeitures of restitution assessed to settlers who didn't leave on time as long as they didn't put up too much of a fuss (something I figure was agreed upon in advance). Sharon, aware that withdrawal with siege around Gaza won’t be accepted as withdrawal without occupation by the rest of the world, moved quickly to arrange with Egypt for security based on the fact that Egypt has as much to gain or lose from security in the area as the Israelis.

Moving forward, both Sharon and Abbas have to pass go with elections. My estimate is that Sharon’s party will, after swallowing hard, realize that though Netanyahu beats Sharon with the party faithful, Sharon beats Netanyahu among the general Likud voting population and by far among the voting population as a whole. Ousting Sharon as party head would be suicidal for the party. Sharon would rather stay in the Likud rather than join up with Labor and Shinui (a secular party) with some joint list because the 3 parties would garner more votes by staying separate than by merging, even if everyone knows they will form a government together. 

After Netanyahu gets his butt kicked, I hope he will disappear. He is a menace and an opportunist and, if he ever becomes prime minister, Israel will become a pariah state because most Jews in America and the American political establishment as well as other governments remember that his word is worthless and that he is a crass politician who has no scruples and is hard to deal with because he is really not interested in what is good for Israel but whatever will get him reelected. At a certain point, I expect insider people to call up his Likud supporters and tell them that nobody here that is in a position of power wants to deal with him and that they will cut him out if he represents Israel. His own supporters fail to realize or recall that as finance minister the poorest sectors of Israel suffered miserably and that as prime minister he signed away Hebron as part of a deal to get the heat off his attorney general and was quite ready to give away the Golan. Jews around the world should consider the possible ill-effects of a peace process that dies: If Palestinian terrorists can’t penetrate the wall into Israel, perhaps they will go after targets they can reach, such as Jews around the world. Sharon is doing the practical thing: consolidating to strengthen the core of the country and to get world support against greater threats. To me a greater threat is the probability that Iran will become nuclear, Saudi will receive nuclear weapons from Pakistan as a result of Saudi’s distrust of Iran, Saudi will undergo a revolution sooner or later, and then nuclear weapons will be in the hands of really nutty Islamists and everyone in the world will be scared to death.

Pakistan-Israeli talks held in Turkey have Saudi approval. This matters because the Saudi-Pakistan relationship is very strong and carries a lot of weight for the Muslim world. Also a sign that Musharraf feels secure in his position. In the past I have written about the fact that Abdullah, as crown prince, offered a Sulha (reconciliation) between Judaism and Islam, beyond a political peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world. People didn’t get the point back then, but I think Sharon will get it in a way that Bibi did not years ago if Abdullah as King comes back with a similar proposal. I am told that Abdullah has more latitude as King to appoint his own people and to do what he wants without as much consensus. Whether or not Pakistan talks with Israel is a stepping-stone toward more Saudi involvement front and center or whether it is a simple matter of a Pakistani maneuver to block the increased cooperation between the US, Israel and India, we will have to see. A more detailed paper on this matter is posted to the site today.

Palestinians are bothered by the rush around them to embrace Sharon when their lives haven’t changed really. What they need to remember is that Sharon’s Gaza move is understood for what it is, a figleaf for countries to point to progress so that they can strengthen ties with Israel, a country that has something to offer. The Palestinians so far are offering a state that everyone thinks will be chaotic and corrupt, an economic failure and a costly project involving endless handouts. The Syrian foreign minister today said that until the Palestinians can unite and get real, there won’t be any Palestinian state. Last month it was the German foreign minister who stated this. If Abbas wants to keep talking about the march to Jerusalem and hasn’t confiscated even one gun yet from his fiefdom of dueling mafiosos, it will be an interminable march.