Last time I wrote we were facing the specter of a long protracted war in Afghanistan. A few hours after I posted my article, I found out we were taking over Kabul and the Taliban were falling apart. First I thought it was a tactical retreat and then it seemed it was almost all over. What’s going on here and, more important, what’s to expect?

In my opinion, the Taliban made a tactical mistake. They retreated to the big cities away from Kabul figuring they’d have a guerilla war during the winter. Instead, they were chased and surrounded in the places to which they fled. Unlike a decade ago, this time the Taliban had no allies and the Americans have better technology than the Russkies did a decade ago. Winter has come but it doesn’t seem to have affected military operations. It is very hard to predict tactical mistakes by the other side and I don’t think the generals counted on this. I do believe however that the takeover of Kabul by the Northern Alliance was not a doublecross; I had been told that Musharraf had agreed to it in advance and I posted a note to that effect in my last article.

Cute item: There was an article about how much money Afghans thought a $25 million reward bounty was worth. One thought it was worth 200 balloons; another thought 2,000.

Observations: Interesting to see how the Arabs in Afghanistan are so hated. They accuse us of foreign meddling all the time; right now their foreign meddling has been exposed and it is interesting that the criticism of the West has stopped all of a sudden as the Afghan population reacted both with great enthusiasm toward the invasion and with great hate toward their old occupier. Makes me wonder if the Saudis really want their domestic version of Islam to continue if they had a choice. Right now the populations that hate America the most are in Egypt and Saudi Arabia (and their governments are the most pro-America); the population that likes America the most is Iran (because their government is not viewed as being in America’s pocket). You have to wonder if Bin Laden and the Saudi princes would have gone for their venture had they known (a) that the US and Iran would be driven toward each other, (b) the Saudis across the board would lose so much wealth and oil power, and (c) the Egyptian economy would go into free fall. The big winners: The government of Sudan which confiscated over $10 million in assets from Bin Laden after he was chased out of there a few years ago.

Opium production is back in full swing now in Afghanistan. So now we will go back to the war on drugs? Now you know why all the mafias in the region backed the US move; the Taliban had shut down a good amount of production (taking the best for themselves).
Interesting to see media in Arab countries. More criticism of radical Islam; less criticism of America and less attention to civilian casualties in Afghanistan. All those doomsday warnings and scenarios about everything from the Arab Street during Ramadan to the fall of governments didn’t materialize. You get the feeling that they like to back winners and respond well to strength. Take note: It means that we will ignore all their criticism and prophesies of gloom regarding Iraq because the minute we topple Saddam they will come out for us (as soon as their butts are covered and it is safe to do so). This by the way was the truth a decade ago. The Americans and Israelis are rolling out new tv and radio stations geared toward the Arab world; Al-Jazeera (sort of a cross between Fox News Channel and the Jerry Springer show) will no longer have the field to itself. As long as these stations stick to news as opposed to propaganda, they will be welcome additions and will make a difference.

Church attendance is back to normal. So much for the return to religion. Here’s a good one useful for any religion: The Rabbi noted Mr. Schwartz in synagogue and, after greeting him, said “We need you to join the Army of God.” Mr. Schwartz said, “What do you mean, I’m already in the Army of God.” The rabbi said, “But you only come to synagogue once a year.” Mr. Schwartz: “Yes, but I’m in the Secret Service.”

The US Government is on a one-track policy right now – preventing terrorism. Arafat doesn’t prevent terrorism; the Bush people want nothing to do with him. Since I last wrote, the government issued an ultimatum to all airlines that were not cooperating with the pre-screening program to either get on board immediately or have their passengers go through hell at customs.

Civil Rights Discussion: There is a lurking fear that Ashcroft is hoarding too much power in the hands of the government. I don’t think he personally is an Edgar Hoover who is power-hungry but he does come off like the Church Lady from Saturday Night Live. The moves by the government are essentially racial profiling by another name and I do not like to see such things happen – today the Arabs, tomorrow the Jews or anyone who a prosecutor wants to put the screws to. The Arabs are paying the price for years of loose talk, tolerating hatred against America, and for failing to criticize extremists even now and I have warned of this result. There is a resurgence of shows of patriotism among Arabs in America, but it is laced with fear. 

On one hand, a foreigner is entitled to less rights than a citizen; on the other, we have to remember that all humans are entitled to certain rights. I don’t understand why we claim the right to listen in on conversations between an accused and his attorney; what’s the point of an attorney if you can’t talk to him privately? So far the American prosecution seems to be incompetent with hapless interrogators on fishing expeditions and it is unfortunate that many innocent people are paying a heavy price while the real culprits are probably untouched. Other countries will hold up extraditions because they will not give us people to throw in front of military tribunals that hide evidence from anyone but the judge and that are not perceived to be fair. Israelis who were held in prison have complained of physical abuses and life-threatening situations so it is not only Arabs getting the royal treatment. The excesses of Ashcroft will ultimately be self-defeating and give America a bad reputation where we should be acting to promote the things that make us proud. However, he is cracking heads among agencies that have long been engaged in turf-battles and who are now beginning to coordinate. Remember also that it took 17 years to catch the Unabomber and in an age of anthrax attacks and smallpox around the corner people want answers now. We are also dealing with an enemy that doesn’t play by the rules. So Ashcroft is under pressure – Americans are willing to cut him slack right now because we have become a little less puritanical in the last 2 months and because we are scared. We are against torture but now have no trouble rationalizing giving over a suspect to a friendly third party such as Jordan, Egypt or Turkey and letting them torture the suspect. Turns out our CIA has been doing some real nasty stuff in Albania alongside the Egyptians, according to the Wall Street Journal in a recent report. Actually, I’m glad these stories are coming out – it is better for us to be realistic and bit less holier than thou.

Before September 11, the Israeli ambassador-designate to Denmark was under fire because he was on the record as being in favor of moderate torture of terrorist suspects. Turns out that since September 11 he has become a very popular ambassador in Denmark.

Turning to the Israeli-Palestinian arena: Quote of the month goes to Peres for calling someone they knocked off a “Professional Terrorist.” Like there are any non-professional or part-time suicide bombers? Sorta an oxymoron – you can’t be professional without experience and once you’ve had the experience, you’re dead.

Something about the intifadah these days strikes me as overly incompetent, even if you are a Hamasnik trying to undercut Arafat. What do they think they are accomplishing by sabotaging the American Zinni’s mission to the region (clearly a no-nonsense guy who was there to give both sides hell) – they should have let the Israelis take the flak for their efforts to neutralize Zinni because it is clear that Sharon has no use for him. So what do they gain if they kill and injure 150 Israelis in a day? They will have another month of tanks and closures all over their cities and the unemployment rate is already over 50% in the territories. There aren’t 5 Israelis today beyond Peres’ 5 political lives who think there is any value to talking to Arafat. The US will now give Sharon a free hand to do anything he wants. The last year has made Israelis much more Zionist than they have been for 20 years, and the American Jew more vigilant against anti-Semitism because of all the cheap shots taken against Jews and Israel during the past year by rhetoricians who compromised credibility for short-term propaganda gain. The Palestinians for their part want to continue the intifadah as long as occupation continues and Arafat is sticking with Hamas because he fears civil war more than being finished off by Sharon or Bush. 

I will soon stop saying it because it is boring but here is a clear restatement of my assessment: Arafat is a cowardly (though cunning) loser who has brought the Palestinians nothing and never will. They should get rid of him. I am not worried about the afterward. Afterward, we will deal with the afterward. Here too, the doomsday scenarios will prove to be wrong; to think it will all become another Afghanistan is to underestimate the civility and intelligence of the general civilian population. As I have also said, once the Israelis see a reasonable leader on the Palestinian side, the whole political dynamic will change quickly. Right now there is no political debate in Israel because there is no reasonable leader on the Palestinian side to talk to. The Palestinians do in effect exercise a veto upon the Israeli political system; they have affected the past several elections and will control the election of Sharon’s successor as well. But it must happen in this order – first the Palestinians put up a reasonable leader, then the Israelis will come around. It will not happen in reverse. Not when Labor party polls taken last week show Sharon as their members’ top choice for party leader!

The Palestinians are in for a rough time – last night on CNN was the suicide bombings in Jerusalem and Netanyahu had a half an hour to himself as they showed the footage from the scene. They told Bibi that a Palestinian representative was on an open phone line. He said, “They’re a bunch of thugs and I have no interest in talking to them.” Great thing for someone who is out of government and has no responsibility to say. But Bibi probably picked up 5 points last night and if the Palestinians keep it up, he will be the next prime minister of Israel. The Americans have no sympathy today for anyone who supports suicide bombers. I am still on alert for another attack in the US timed for the end of Ramadan and to “punish” America for standing with Israel against Arafat & Co. – it will only drive the Americans closer to the Israelis. 

A few more long-range global thoughts:

1.  The US should make a long-range commitment to seriously fund educational institutions in the developing world, including these Arab and Moslem lands. We shouldn’t leave all these madrasas to the Saudis, Iranians and other assorted mullahs with money. Spread education and ideas and we will have more influence in the region and more young people equipped to have a life worth living. I think this one move will have a more profound effect than any military campaign (and cost less).

2. If you’re flying today, I add a new item to the Packing List. Get a small handbag; Virgin Atlantic gives one away that weighs hardly anything and has a velcro seal across the top. You just close it and whatever is in there stays tight. This is excellent for x-ray machines and for airplane travel. It is faster today to just empty your pants pockets (and run your jacket through the machine if you stuff your jacket pockets) and put the stuff in the bag as well as other things to carry on the plane besides whatever larger carryon bag you carry.

3. JetBlue Airlines is the best thing flying today in the US. They run on time, have great service, their food and security is good, and their fares and rules are fair and rational. They give you personal entertainment centers featuring 20 channels of live TV. I’ve noticed that a lot of males are watching the Food Channel. They can’t all be gay. With titles such as “The Naked Chef” and scenes of basketball dunking amid the cooking (nevertheless it is a typical show with nothing naked), they are trying to make cooking look cool and obviously succeeding. I am wondering what this newfound interest in cooking by young TV-watching males means.

4. The American economy is functioning better than expected and, believe it or not, the recovery signs were underway even in the first 2 months after 9/11. The mortgage refinancing market amidst low inflation, a stronger dollar, recovering stock market, low gasoline prices and low interest rates have put a lot of money into Americans’ pockets – much more so than any tax cuts being talked about in Congress. The refinancing is also good for America’s banks which were having some real problems this year; these “good loans” will help balance out the “bad loans” in such areas as the telecom sector. There is redirection of money that used to go into the government bond market into other areas which is good for capital markets liquidity. Indexes such as unemployment, housing, business inventory, consumer spending are better than expected. Government spending is also up and this of course affects the economy. We may begin to see signs of recovery in 2002 (including travel beginning in the spring months) if there are no wild and scary events inside the US – we have become somewhat immune to the hijack and bombing – hopefully there will no NBC (nuclear, biological or chemical) attacks but at least we have had the chance to ramp up the learning curve. There is even the willingness to begin to look at technology-oriented investments again.